MTK vs Paksi SE: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams, suggesting a draw as the most likely outcome. MTK boasts a better offense in home games (2.38 goals/match), but their recent form is poor (0 wins in 5 matches, 0.8 pts/match). Paksi SE holds a better league position and a more solid away defense (1.08 goals conceded/match), yet their current form is also concerning (0 wins in the last 5 matches, 0.4 pts/match). Paksi's high away draw rate (31%) and the similar xG values of both teams (MTK 1.66 vs Paksi 1.80) further support the prediction of a share of the points. Taking into account MTK's home advantage and the visitors' slightly better overall disposition, I predict a slight edge for the hosts, but a draw remains the most realistic scenario.
MTK vs Paksi SE: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
MTK played Paksi SE in NB I (Hungary). The match was played on 20 March 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
MTK: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Paksi SE: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
MTK scores 1.73 and concedes 2.08 goals per match. Paksi SE scores 1.81 and concedes 1.46. League average: 2.97 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: MTK 69%, Paksi SE 73%. Over 2.5: MTK 73%, Paksi SE 65%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Paksi SE has higher xG: 2.05 vs 1.52. MTK: 12.9 shots per match, Paksi SE: 16.5.
Match halves
MTK: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 1.08. Paksi SE: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.08.
Goals by minute
MTK: 76-90+ (10 goals). Paksi SE: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NB I: 2.97 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 4.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams, suggesting a draw as the most likely outcome. MTK boasts a better offense in home games (2.38 goals/match), but their recent form is poor (0 wins in 5 matches, 0.8 pts/match). Paksi SE holds a better league position and a more solid away defense (1.08 goals conceded/match), yet their current form is also concerning (0 wins in the last 5 matches, 0.4 pts/match). Paksi's high away draw rate (31%) and the similar xG values of both teams (MTK 1.66 vs Paksi 1.80) further support the prediction of a share of the points. Taking into account MTK's home advantage and the visitors' slightly better overall disposition, I predict a slight edge for the hosts, but a draw remains the most realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| MTK | Paksi SE | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
MTK is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - MTK · 0.4 pts / match - Paksi SE
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paksi SE is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - MTK · 1.81 goals / match - Paksi SE
Paksi SE is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.08 goals / match - MTK · 1.46 goals / match - Paksi SE
MTK scores in 85% of matches (22 of 26 matches), while Paksi SE keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 26 matches).
Paksi SE scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while MTK keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MTK
Over / Under - Paksi SE
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paksi SE is 54% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - MTK · 1.42 pts / match - Paksi SE
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MTK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paksi SE - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
MTK
Paksi SE
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NB I).
Teams vs league
| MTK | Liga | Paksi SE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.81 | 2.97 | ▲ 3.27 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 62% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 59% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 21% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 68% | ▼ 58% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 96% | 88% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): MTK 0 - 0 - 2 Paksi SE. Average goals 4.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of MTK vs Paksi SE?
The NB I match finished MTK 0:2 Paksi SE. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between MTK and Paksi SE?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches MTK won 0, Paksi SE won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before MTK vs Paksi SE?
MTK score 1.73 goals per game on average and Paksi SE 1.81. The NB I average is 2.97 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 69% of MTK's matches and 73% of Paksi SE's.
What form are MTK and Paksi SE in?
Over the last 5 games MTK have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Paksi SE 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MTK vs Paksi SE?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for MTK vs Paksi SE: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.