Mura vs Koper: match statistics

Mura have a slight home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches, while Koper have won 33% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1 goal per home game and have failed to score in none of their matches, whereas Koper have been held scoreless in 33% of their away games. The visitors’ attacking quality is reflected in their slightly higher xG of 1.31 compared with Mura’s 1.15. However, Koper are in weaker form, having failed to win any of their last five matches and scoring just 4 goals. Koper’s away defence looks more solid, conceding an average of 1.0 goals compared with Mura’s 1.5, which clearly increases the likelihood of a draw. Nevertheless, Mura have picked up 7 points in their last five league matches, compared with Koper’s 3, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is strengthened by current form: in Mura’s last five matches, both teams scored in 80% of fixtures, compared with 60% for Koper. Mura averaged 1.6 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.2, while Koper, despite scoring only 0.8 goals, generated an average of 2.00 xG. The hosts also create more chances across the season, with 1.95 xG and 16 shots per match, while their defence allows opponents 1.59 xG. The risk to the pick is Koper’s season-long BTTS rate of 33% and the fact that they have failed to score in 33% of their matches. However, the latest attacking data and Mura’s vulnerability to conceding goals give a slight edge to the scenario in which both sides find the net.

Mura creates plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.95 xG and 16 shots per match, while Koper allows an average of 1.27 xG. In their last five matches, the visitors have generated as much as 2.00 xG per game, but scored only 0.8 goals, which limits confidence in a high-scoring outcome. Mura’s recent form has been more open, with its matches across the previous five rounds producing an average of 3.8 goals, and at least 3 goals being scored in 80% of them. At the same time, Koper have not exceeded the 2.5-goal line in any of their league matches so far, while neither team has yet played a match featuring at least 4 goals. The projected total of 2.65 goals points to a realistic chance of three goals, but the Under 3.5 goals line offers a clearer edge.

Mura’s first-half performance has been clearly stronger over their last five matches: they led at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Koper failed to lead in any match, did not score, and were behind after 45 minutes in 80% of their appearances. The hosts also create more chances, recording an average xG of 1.95 compared with Koper’s 1.31, as well as 16 shots and 4 on target per match, versus the visitors’ 10.33 shots and 2.33 on target. Mura’s form is also more favourable, averaging 1.4 points per game and winning 40% of their last five matches, while Koper remained winless during this period. After the break, Mura have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, while Koper average only 0.67 goals, further supporting the scenario in which the hosts maintain their lead until the final whistle. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 1/1, with Mura taking the lead before half-time and securing the win.