Mura vs Maribor: match statistics
Mura vs Maribor: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mura played Maribor in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Mesti Stadion Fazanerija. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mura: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Maribor: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mura scores 0.97 and concedes 1.59 goals per match. Maribor scores 1.66 and concedes 1.28. League average: 3.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mura 41%, Maribor 47%. Over 2.5: Mura 50%, Maribor 56%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Maribor has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.48. Mura: 11.6 shots per match, Maribor: 13.3.
Match halves
Mura: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.53. Maribor: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Mura: 76-90+ (8 goals). Maribor: 31-45+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
PrvaLiga: 3.07 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
On paper Maribor appears the favorite: this season they have 14 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses with 53 goals scored versus Mura’s 7 wins, 7 draws, 18 losses and 31 goals. Recent form is similar — over the last five matches both teams have 1 win and 4 losses, averaging 0.6 points per game and 4 goals scored each. At home Mura averages 1.13 goals for and 1.19 against with xG for 1.50 and xG against 1.22, while Maribor away averages 1.06 goals for and 1.31 against with xG for 1.63 and xG against 1.53, indicating higher chance-generation from Maribor. Additionally Maribor registers more shots on target (3.94 vs 3.63) and greater possession (53% vs 47%) and seasonally have scored 22 more goals and conceded 13 fewer, suggesting superior attacking quality and overall efficiency; therefore I predict an away win with a probability distribution of 25% home / 30% draw / 45% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Mura scores on average 2.4 goals per game this season with xG 1.82 and at home averages 5.87 shots on target per match, indicating high home scoring potential. Maribor averages 1.06 goals per game and xG 1.63, but has only 9% shot conversion and kept a clean sheet in 25% of away matches, so may struggle to finish despite creating chances. The last 5 matches for both teams show BTTS at 40% and a low number of goals scored (avg. 0.8 per match each), but Mura conceded 1.4 goals in the last 5 and Maribor 1.8, which favors goals from both sides. Additionally, the league has a high BTTS rate of 59% and an average of 3.09 goals per game, and Mura’s advantage in conversion and shots on target (17% vs 9% and 5.87 vs 3.94) increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal, so I rate BTTS - Yes at 62% and No Goal at 38%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Mura scores an average of 2.4 goals per home match with xG 1.82 and 5.87 shots on target, while Maribor averages 1.06 goals away with xG 1.63 and 3.94 shots on target. A model combining the home attack (xG 1.82) and the away defense (xG against 1.53) yields an expected ~1.68 goals for Mura and 1.53 for Maribor, totaling 3.21 goals. Season percentages for matches over 1.5 goals are 93% for the home side and 69% for the away side, which, combined with the expected 3.21 goals, suggests strong backing for Over 1.5 (≈83%). Over 2.5 has moderate backing (seasonal 67%/44% for home/away; Poisson with mu=3.21 ≈62%), whereas Over 3.5 drops to about 40% (home 47%, away 19%). I pick Over 1.5 as the best line because Mura’s high finishing rate (conversion 17% vs Maribor 9%) and the fact that 94% of Maribor’s away matches are Over 0.5 increase the probability of at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A strong signal comes from the first half: Mura led at the break in 12 matches (80%), scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding only 0.27 in the first half. Over full matches Mura scores an average of 2.40 goals per game, while Maribor concedes an average of 1.31 goals; additionally Mura generates xG of 1.82 versus Maribor’s xG against of 1.53, records 5.87 shots on target versus 3.94, and has a conversion rate of 17% compared to the opponents’ 9%. Mura accumulated 38 points at half-time compared to Maribor’s 22 and has a half-time points average of 2.53 vs 1.38, confirming the home side’s dominance before the break. On that basis the most likely scenario is Mura leading at half-time and maintaining the win to full-time (1/1) — I assess its probability at around 60%; draws and turnarounds are less likely, since Maribor led at the break in only 6 matches (38%) and has a lower shot conversion.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mura | Maribor | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Maribor is 71% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Mura · 1.66 goals / match - Maribor
Maribor is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.59 goals / match - Mura · 1.28 goals / match - Maribor
Mura scores in 53% of matches (17 of 32 matches), while Maribor keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 matches).
Maribor scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Mura keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mura
Over / Under - Maribor
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Maribor is 110% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.91 pts / match - Mura · 1.91 pts / match - Maribor
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mura - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Maribor - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 44%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mura
Maribor
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (PrvaLiga).
Teams vs league
| Mura | Liga | Maribor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 3.07 | ▼ 2.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 58% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 64% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 23% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | • 84% | 85% | ▲ 91% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 66% | 79% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- MariborYellow cardTéva Gardies
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Mura 0 - 0 - 3 Maribor. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mura vs Maribor?
The PrvaLiga match finished Mura 2:1 Maribor. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mura and Maribor?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Mura won 0, Maribor won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mura vs Maribor?
Mura score 0.97 goals per game on average and Maribor 1.66. The PrvaLiga average is 3.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Mura's matches and 47% of Maribor's.
What form are Mura and Maribor in?
Over the last 5 games Mura have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Maribor 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mura vs Maribor?
The statistical background for Mura vs Maribor — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.