Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño: match statistics
Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional Asunción played Cerro Porteño in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Nacional Asunción: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Cerro Porteño: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional Asunción scores 1.47 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Cerro Porteño scores 1.67 and concedes 0.87. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional Asunción 67%, Cerro Porteño 33%. Over 2.5: Nacional Asunción 47%, Cerro Porteño 33%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Cerro Porteño has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.29. Nacional Asunción: 12.3 shots per match, Cerro Porteño: 14.7.
Match halves
Nacional Asunción: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.93. Cerro Porteño: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.93.
Goals by minute
Nacional Asunción: 76-90+ (6 goals). Cerro Porteño: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-3. Average goals 2.60, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cerro Porteño is the favorite in this match and I back the away win (2). The visitors have 10 wins this season versus Nacional’s 6 and display a clearly superior run — 4 wins in their last 5 matches compared to just 1 win for the hosts in the same period. In attack Cerro have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Nacional only 5, and the average shots on target is 5.29 for the visitors versus 4.29 for the hosts. Nacional at home average 1.86 goals and 58% possession, but Cerro on the road also average 1.86 goals and have a better goals-against record this season (13 vs 17) as well as a higher clean sheet percentage (43% vs 29%). Additionally, the visitors’ xG is 1.40 versus 1.35 for the hosts, and the edge in efficiency and points (an average of 2.4 points per game in the last 5 for Cerro vs 1.0 for Nacional) favors an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis slightly favors BTTS: home xG is 1.61 vs xG against guests 1.32, and away xG is 1.40 vs xG against hosts 1.03, translating to expected ~1.47 goals for Nacional and ~1.21 for Cerro Porteño. Seasonal indicators are mixed — Nacional has seasonal BTTS at home 25% with 50% clean sheets, while Cerro Porteño has seasonal BTTS 43% and 43% clean sheets; league BTTS level is 48%. Last 5 matches shift the picture: Nacional in those five has BTTS 60% and concedes on average 1.6 goals, whereas Cerro in the last 5 scores on average 2.2 goals and concedes 1.0, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally shots and efficiency show 16.25 shots (Nacional) vs 12.86 (Cerro) and conversion rate 9% vs 14%, suggesting the visitors are more efficient and likelier to score. Considering xG>1 for both teams, Nacional’s worsened recent defensive stats and Cerro’s higher efficiency, I rate BTTS as more probable (58% vs 42%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate Nacional to score about 1.47 goals and Cerro Porteño about 1.21 goals, totaling ~2.68 goals. The projection is based on xG: hosts have xG-for 1.61 and guests xG-against 1.32 (average ≈1.47 for hosts), while visitors have xG-for 1.40 against hosts’ xG-against 1.03 (≈1.21 for guests). With lambda = 2.68 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 75% probability for Over 1.5, about 50% for Over 2.5 and around 28% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Seasonal figures reinforce this choice: hosts have 88% of matches Over 1.5, guests 71%, and both teams show high Over 0.5 rates (100% and 86%). For these reasons I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the most likely outcome.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 2/2 scenario (away team leading at half-time and winning the match) as the most likely, because Cerro Porteño won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and led at the break in 2 of 5 (40%), while Nacional led at half-time in 0 of 5 (0%). In the first half over the last 5 matches the away side averaged 1.2 goals versus 0.2 for the home side, and on the season the away team scores 1.86 goals per game versus 1.50 for the home team, indicating an offensive edge for the visitors. Although the home side’s xG is higher (1.61 vs 1.40) and they attempt more shots on average (16.25 vs 12.86), the visitors are more efficient (14% vs 9%), which increases the likelihood of converting chances into goals and maintaining the lead. Considering form (80% away wins in the last 5), first-half goal advantage (1.2 vs 0.2) and seasonal goal figures, the 2/2 scenario is the strongest signal; alternatively X/2 (draw at half-time and away win) is also a realistic outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional Asunción | Cerro Porteño | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cerro Porteño is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Nacional Asunción · 2.4 pts / match - Cerro Porteño
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cerro Porteño is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Nacional Asunción · 1.67 goals / match - Cerro Porteño
Cerro Porteño is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Nacional Asunción · 0.87 goals / match - Cerro Porteño
Nacional Asunción scores in 87% of matches (13 of 15 matches), while Cerro Porteño keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 matches).
Cerro Porteño scores in 73% of matches (11 of 15 matches), while Nacional Asunción keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional Asunción
Over / Under - Cerro Porteño
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cerro Porteño is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / match - Nacional Asunción · 1.47 pts / match - Cerro Porteño
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional Asunción - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro Porteño - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional Asunción
Cerro Porteño
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Nacional Asunción | Liga | Cerro Porteño | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.60 | 2.41 | ▲ 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 48% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 39% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 29% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 81% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Nacional Asunción 1 - 1 - 3 Cerro Porteño. Average goals 2.60, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
The Division Profesional match finished Nacional Asunción 0:0 Cerro Porteño. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional Asunción and Cerro Porteño?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional Asunción won 1, Cerro Porteño won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
Nacional Asunción score 1.47 goals per game on average and Cerro Porteño 1.67. The Division Profesional average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Nacional Asunción's matches and 33% of Cerro Porteño's.
What form are Nacional Asunción and Cerro Porteño in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional Asunción have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Cerro Porteño 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
The statistical background for Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.