Napoli vs Bologna: match statistics

Napoli have the edge in current form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, thanks to 2 wins and a draw, while Bologna have managed just 1 point and lost 4 games. The hosts have scored 12 goals during this period, four times as many as Bologna, who have found the net only 3 times. At home, Napoli average one goal per match and have failed to score in none of their games, whereas Bologna are still without an away goal despite averaging 16 shots and an xG of 1.46. The visitors are better at limiting the quality of their opponents’ chances, allowing an xG of 0.75 compared with Napoli’s 2.15, but their lack of away goals and four-match losing streak favour the hosts. Napoli’s defence remains a risk, as they concede an average of 2 goals at home, so the draw still carries significant probability.

Napoli have averaged 2.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while Bologna have conceded 1.8 goals per game during the same period, making a home goal highly likely. However, Bologna’s attack is the key limitation for BTTS: they have scored only 3 goals in their last five outings, averaging 0.6 per match, while their current away average stands at 0.0. Bologna have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, although their latest xG of 1.42 suggests some potential to break that run. Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 0% of matches, but Bologna’s BTTS rate is only 0% for the season and 40% across their last five matches, compared with the league average of 53%. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains Napoli scoring while at least one team—Bologna in particular—fails to find the net. This supports BTTS - No / No Goal: at least one team is expected not to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Napoli have averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last 5 matches, while Bologna have managed just 0.6 goals per game over the same period and have lost four of their last five matches. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.81 xG at home, while Bologna’s defence allows only 0.75 xG, limiting expectations of a very high Napoli tally. The visitors have attacking potential of 1.46 xG, but are yet to score away from home, and in 100% of such matches there have been fewer than 2.5 goals. Over 3.5 goals has landed in 50% of Napoli’s home matches, but never in Bologna’s away fixtures, so with the goal line set at 2.50, the safest pick is Under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Napoli win at full-time, as Bologna were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Napoli. The visitors did not hold a single lead at half-time during this period, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals before the break, while Napoli averaged 0.8. After half-time, the home side clearly grows into the game: they score an average of 1.6 goals in second halves, compared with Bologna’s 0.4, while their last five matches produced an average of 2.4 goals scored per game. Bologna lost 80% of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in those games, increasing the likelihood that an even start will turn in Napoli’s favour after the break.