Naprzód Jędrzejów vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm arrive on the back of a run of 5 consecutive victories, during which they scored 10 goals and conceded just 1, while Naprzód Jędrzejów have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding 12 goals in that span. However, the hosts are highly dangerous at home: they have won both matches, average 3.5 goals scored, and create chances worth 2.23 xG per game. The key factor is the visitors’ defence, as they have not conceded a single goal in three league matches and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away games. Naprzód concede an average of 2.5 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, which, combined with Chełmianka’s efficiency and their average of 2 away goals, points towards the visitors. The match could be open, as both teams register plenty of shots on target—10 and 9 per game respectively—but Chełmianka’s more consistent form gives them the edge.

Chełmianka are in excellent form, having won their last five matches, while conceding just 1 goal across their previous 5 games—an average of 0.2 per match. Their BTTS rate during this period is only 20%, compared with Naprzód’s 40%, which remains well below the league average of 59%. The visitors have averaged 2.0 goals in their last five appearances, giving them strong grounds to decide the outcome on their own, while the hosts have scored 1.4 goals and lost 3 of their 5 matches. In addition, Chełmianka have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches so far, and their average xG against stands at 1.05, supporting a scenario in which Naprzód fail to score. The most likely outcome is therefore BTTS - No, as at least one team—primarily the hosts—may not find the net.

Chełmianka are in an excellent run of five consecutive wins, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding just 0.2 in their last 5 matches—only one goal in total. Over the same period, Naprzód conceded 2.4 goals per game, which favors the visitors, but their average goals scored stands at just 1.4. The home side’s attack generated an average of 1.42 xG, while Chełmianka’s defense allowed opponents 1.05 xG, making a limited scoring output from Naprzód the most likely scenario. Only 40% of Chełmianka’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, and across the entire available sample, their matches never produced more than 3.5 goals. The projected total of 2.35 goals points to value on Under 3.5 goals, as a result requiring at least four goals would need a significantly higher tempo than indicated by the visitors’ solid defense.

Chełmianka are in clearly better current form: they have won their last five matches, while Naprzód have lost three of their last five and scored only 1.4 goals on average. The hosts conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match during this period, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors, which strongly supports the likelihood of the latter maintaining their lead until the final whistle. Naprzód were trailing at half-time in 67% of their recent matches, whereas Chełmianka have not gone into the break behind on any occasion and averaged 2.0 goals in the first half. In addition, the visitors generate an average of 2.01 xG and 9 shots on target per match, making a lead at the break followed by a victory at the final whistle the most likely scenario: HT/FT 2/2.