Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance: match statistics

Bendel Insurance go into the match in 5th place, while Nasarawa United sit 19th, clearly highlighting the difference in their results to date. The visitors have scored 7 goals and conceded just 5 in their last 5 matches, winning 3 games, whereas the hosts have also scored 7 goals over the same period but conceded as many as 9 and suffered 3 defeats. Bendel Insurance’s current form stands at 10 points from five matches, compared with Nasarawa United’s 6 points. This season, the visitors won their only match 2:1, while the hosts lost 1:3, further suggesting that Bendel Insurance are better organised defensively. Nasarawa are capable of scoring, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but the visitors’ more stable defence and superior results record give them the edge.

Signals from the last five matches slightly support BTTS - Yes: Bendel Insurance saw both teams score in 80% of their games, while the figure for Nasarawa United was 40%. Both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, while Nasarawa conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match, increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. However, Nasarawa generated clearly better-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.23 compared with just 0.20 for Bendel Insurance, so the biggest risk to the selection is the visitors’ low attacking creativity. Despite this, Bendel Insurance scored 7 goals in their last five appearances, while the hosts conceded 9, making a Goal/Goal scenario slightly more likely. In addition, 70% of league matches end with both teams scoring, further strengthening the BTTS - Yes selection.

Nasarawa United have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five matches, while Bendel Insurance have recorded the same scoring average but conceded just 1.0 goal per game. The recent matches involving both teams have relatively often gone Over 2.5 goals — this occurred in 80% of Nasarawa’s games and 60% of Bendel’s — but this does not yet indicate regular four-goal matches. The five-match xG averages are significantly lower for the visitors, 0.20 compared with 1.23 for the hosts, which limits the likelihood of a highly open, end-to-end game. The projected total of 2.40 goals is close to the league average of 2.7, but leaves a clear margin below the 3.5 line; therefore, Under 3.5 goals has the strongest statistical support.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Bendel Insurance win, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Nasarawa United. During this period, both teams averaged 0.6 goals before half-time, limiting either side’s advantage in the opening stages. After the break, Bendel Insurance won 80% of their matches and conceded just 0.2 goals per game, while Nasarawa conceded an average of 1.0 goal. The full-time results also favour the visitors: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, compared with Nasarawa’s 2 defeats in 5 matches and average of 1.2 points per game. The hosts’ current-season home data is very limited, although it shows 2 goals scored and 3 points; therefore, greater weight should be placed on both teams’ broader recent form.