Náutico vs Vila Nova: match statistics
Náutico vs Vila Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Náutico played Vila Nova in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Náutico: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Vila Nova: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Náutico scores 1.22 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Vila Nova scores 1.38 and concedes 0.97. League average: 2.34 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Náutico 47%, Vila Nova 38%. Over 2.5: Náutico 41%, Vila Nova 34%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Náutico has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.46. Náutico: 16.2 shots per match, Vila Nova: 13.6.
Match halves
Náutico: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.84. Vila Nova: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.66.
Goals by minute
Náutico: 76-90+ (14 goals). Vila Nova: 61-75 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.34 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 7.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Although Vila Nova lead the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, they have won only 31% of their away games, scoring an average of 0.81 goals. Náutico have won 53% of their home matches, averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. The hosts also create considerably better chances on home soil: their average xG is 2.08, compared with Vila Nova’s away xG of 1.19. Náutico’s recent form is a concern, however—they have managed just 1 win in their last 5 matches and conceded 10 goals, while the visitors let in just 1 goal over the same period. Even so, the hosts’ home results and the quality of their chances give them a slight edge going into this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal points to Vila Nova potentially failing to score: they average 0.81 goals away from home and draw a blank in 44% of matches, while Náutico keep a clean sheet in 47% of their home games. The visitors do have an xG of 1.19, but average only 3 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 5.67. Náutico score 2.07 goals per home game, but Vila Nova have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, which limits confidence in the outcome. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is the hosts’ weaker recent defensive form, having conceded an average of 2 goals across 5 matches; even so, BTTS - Yes has landed in only 20% of the visitors’ recent games. Overall, Náutico’s frequent clean sheets and Vila Nova’s away scoring problems make it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Náutico score an average of 2.07 goals at home, while Vila Nova concede 1.25 away from home, tempering expectations for the hosts’ goal tally. The visitors score just 0.81 goals per away match, and Náutico concede 0.73 at home, so Vila Nova may make only a limited contribution to the scoreline. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 80% of Náutico’s home matches and 87% of Vila Nova’s away matches. The last five games show a contrast: at least 3 goals were scored in 80% of Náutico’s matches, yet none of Vila Nova’s five games went over that mark, with the visitors conceding just 1 goal in total. A projected total of 2.55 goals, combined with the frequent Under 3.5 results for both teams, makes Under 3.5 goals the strongest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest indicator remains Náutico’s home advantage: the hosts led at the break in 60% of these matches and won 80% of them. They average 1.13 goals scored before half-time, while Vila Nova concede 0.81 in that period, supporting the case for a home lead after 45 minutes. Across the full match, Náutico average 2.07 goals at home compared with Vila Nova’s 0.81 away, while their xG stands at 1.75 versus the visitors’ 1.19. I therefore consider Náutico leading at half-time and holding on for the win to be the most likely single scenario. However, confidence in the pick is tempered by recent form: Vila Nova have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Náutico have won just 1 of 5, so a turnaround or a draw remain significant possibilities.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Náutico | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vila Nova is 120% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Náutico · 2.2 pts / match - Vila Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Náutico · 1.38 goals / match - Vila Nova
Vila Nova is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Náutico · 0.97 goals / match - Vila Nova
Náutico scores in 66% of matches (21 of 32 matches), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 41% (13 of 32 matches).
Vila Nova scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Náutico keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Náutico
Over / Under - Vila Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vila Nova is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Náutico · 1.47 pts / match - Vila Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Náutico - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Vila Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Náutico
Vila Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Náutico | Liga | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.47 | 2.34 | • 2.34 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 48% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 43% | ▼ 34% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 30% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 67% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 75% | ▼ 66% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Náutico 0 - 0 - 1 Vila Nova. Average goals 7.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Náutico vs Vila Nova?
The Serie B match finished Náutico 0:2 Vila Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Náutico vs Vila Nova?
Náutico score 1.22 goals per game on average and Vila Nova 1.38. The Serie B average is 2.34 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Náutico's matches and 38% of Vila Nova's.
What form are Náutico and Vila Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Náutico have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Vila Nova 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Náutico vs Vila Nova?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Náutico vs Vila Nova: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.