NEC vs UPDF: match statistics
NEC demonstrates significantly better form and statistics both in the context of the entire season and recent matches. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches with only 1 defeat, whereas UPDF has not recorded a single victory during this period, losing as many as 4 times. Efficiency is also key – NEC averages 1.38 goals per match at home, while the visitors score just 0.89 goals away and have failed to find the net in their last 5 matches. UPDF's away goal difference stands at -10, and their loss percentage reaches 67%, which, combined with 65% possession, indicates low effectiveness. Additionally, NEC maintains 38% clean sheets at home, which, when set against the visitors' offensive struggles, gives the hosts a clear advantage. All these factors point to a probable victory for NEC in this fixture.
NEC vs UPDF: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
NEC played UPDF in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match was played on 3 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
NEC: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. UPDF: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
NEC scores 1.06 and concedes 0.94 goals per match. UPDF scores 0.71 and concedes 1.47. League average: 2.15 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: NEC 59%, UPDF 35%. Over 2.5: NEC 29%, UPDF 41%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
UPDF has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.49. NEC: 9.0 shots per match, UPDF: 11.9.
Match halves
NEC: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.59. UPDF: half-time lead 12%, second-half goals 0.41.
Goals by minute
NEC: 61-75 (5 goals). UPDF: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.15 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
NEC demonstrates significantly better form and statistics both in the context of the entire season and recent matches. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches with only 1 defeat, whereas UPDF has not recorded a single victory during this period, losing as many as 4 times. Efficiency is also key – NEC averages 1.38 goals per match at home, while the visitors score just 0.89 goals away and have failed to find the net in their last 5 matches. UPDF's away goal difference stands at -10, and their loss percentage reaches 67%, which, combined with 65% possession, indicates low effectiveness. Additionally, NEC maintains 38% clean sheets at home, which, when set against the visitors' offensive struggles, gives the hosts a clear advantage. All these factors point to a probable victory for NEC in this fixture.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| NEC | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 25% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NEC is 700% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - NEC · 0.2 pts / match - UPDF
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NEC is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
1.06 goals / match - NEC · 0.71 goals / match - UPDF
NEC is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.94 goals / match - NEC · 1.47 goals / match - UPDF
NEC scores in 82% of matches (14 of 17 matches), while UPDF keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 matches).
UPDF scores in 53% of matches (9 of 17 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - NEC
Over / Under - UPDF
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NEC is 124% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / match - NEC · 0.71 pts / match - UPDF
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
UPDF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 12% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
NEC
UPDF
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| NEC | Liga | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.15 | • 2.18 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 41% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 36% | ▲ 41% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 35% | 37% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 61% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 60% | • 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: NEC 0 - 1 - 0 UPDF. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of NEC vs UPDF?
The Uganda Premier League match finished NEC 1:0 UPDF. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before NEC vs UPDF?
NEC score 1.06 goals per game on average and UPDF 0.71. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 59% of NEC's matches and 35% of UPDF's.
What form are NEC and UPDF in?
Over the last 5 games NEC have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and UPDF 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for NEC vs UPDF?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.