Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon: match statistics
Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Neftchi played Termez Surkhon in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 9 September 2026. Venue: Stadion Istiqlol. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Neftchi: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Termez Surkhon: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Neftchi scores 2.35 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. Termez Surkhon scores 0.85 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Neftchi 35%, Termez Surkhon 45%. Over 2.5: Neftchi 70%, Termez Surkhon 40%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Neftchi has higher xG: 1.88 vs 1.26. Neftchi: 16.1 shots per match, Termez Surkhon: 11.1.
Match halves
Neftchi: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.40. Termez Surkhon: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Neftchi: 46-60 (11 goals). Termez Surkhon: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Neftchi are top of the table and have a significantly stronger season record overall: 14 wins and 47 goals scored in 20 matches, while Termez Surkhon have won just 6 times and scored 17 goals. At home, the hosts win 80% of their matches, score an average of 2.6 goals and concede just 0.5, whereas the visitors score only 0.9 goals per away game. Neftchi’s superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG is 1.91 compared with Termez’s 1.21, while shots on target stand at 6.2 to 3.1. The visitors have had the more solid recent defence, conceding 4 goals in their last five matches, but they have scored just 2 goals themselves during that period. Neftchi have won 3 of their last 5 matches, and Termez’s poor finishing combined with the league leaders’ highly reliable home form clearly points to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Termez Surkhon averages just 0.9 goals per game this season and only 0.4 goals across their last five matches. The visitors failed to score in 30% of their league matches, while Neftchi kept a clean sheet in only 20%; however, the opponent’s attacking weakness remains the more important factor. BTTS occurred in 40% of Termez’s matches and 50% of Neftchi’s, while current form lowers these figures to 20% and 40%, respectively. Neftchi have been prolific recently, averaging 2.0 goals with an xG of 1.83 across their last five matches, making a home win with the visitors failing to score the most realistic scenario. The combined season average of 1.7 goals per match for both teams is also well below the league average of 2.61, further supporting the outcome in which at least one side fails to find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as both teams finished below this line in 80% of their matches this season. Termez Surkhon average just 0.9 goals per match and have scored only 2 goals in their last five outings, or 0.4 per game. Neftchi have shown a more offensive profile recently, averaging 2.0 goals scored across their last five matches, but their opponents have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season. The combined xG figures of 1.30 for Neftchi and 1.21 for Termez suggest chances at both ends, but do not point to a four-goal scenario. Additionally, neither team has scored more than 3.5 goals in a match this season, further strengthening the case for Under 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Neftchi win in the match, as Termez Surkhon have yet to score a single goal before the break and went into half-time level in 50% of their matches. At home, Neftchi average 0.5 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded in the first half, while their last five matches have ended level at the break as many as 60% of the time. After the interval, the hosts have clearly improved their form: they have averaged 1.6 goals scored across their last five appearances, compared with just 0.2 for Termez. In addition, Neftchi have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have recorded only one victory during this period and failed to score after half-time on four occasions. Although Termez have a better points-per-game average over the season as a whole, 1.4 compared with 0.9, the hosts' advantage in the current second-half performance points towards a turnaround or a decisive Neftchi win after a half-time draw.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Neftchi | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftchi is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Neftchi · 1 pts / match - Termez Surkhon
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftchi is 176% better for: goals scored per match.
2.35 goals / match - Neftchi · 0.85 goals / match - Termez Surkhon
Neftchi is 63% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.8 goals / match - Neftchi · 1.3 goals / match - Termez Surkhon
Neftchi scores in 85% of matches (17 of 20 matches), while Termez Surkhon keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
Termez Surkhon scores in 60% of matches (12 of 20 matches), while Neftchi keeps a clean sheet in 60% (12 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Neftchi
Over / Under - Termez Surkhon
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftchi is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.8 pts / match - Neftchi · 0.9 pts / match - Termez Surkhon
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Neftchi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Termez Surkhon - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Neftchi
Termez Surkhon
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Neftchi | Liga | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.15 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 54% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 52% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 26% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 68% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Neftchi 2 - 1 - 0 Termez Surkhon. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Neftchi 2:1 Termez Surkhon. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Neftchi and Termez Surkhon?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Neftchi won 2, Termez Surkhon won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon?
Neftchi score 2.35 goals per game on average and Termez Surkhon 0.85. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Neftchi's matches and 45% of Termez Surkhon's.
What form are Neftchi and Termez Surkhon in?
Over the last 5 games Neftchi have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Termez Surkhon 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon?
The statistical background for Neftchi vs Termez Surkhon — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.