Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema displays solid home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive record of 50% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (2 PPG), while Ethiopia Bunna has managed only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. Particularly concerning for the visitors is their high away FTS% of 44%, indicating difficulties in scoring. The positive goal difference of the hosts (+5) in home matches and their advantage in effectiveness (xG 1.06 vs 0.97) further support their chances of winning. Despite better possession (58%), Ethiopia Bunna fails to translate this into efficiency, which, combined with the defensive solidity of the hosts (averaging 0.6 goals conceded), points towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Ethiopia Bunna in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 26 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Ethiopia Bunna: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.10 and concedes 0.65 goals per match. Ethiopia Bunna scores 0.84 and concedes 1.05. League average: 1.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 35%, Ethiopia Bunna 42%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 25%, Ethiopia Bunna 32%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 26%.
xG, shots and style
Negele Arsi Ketema has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.14. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.0 shots per match, Ethiopia Bunna: 7.2.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.55. Ethiopia Bunna: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Ethiopia Bunna: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.74 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 26%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema displays solid home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive record of 50% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (2 PPG), while Ethiopia Bunna has managed only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. Particularly concerning for the visitors is their high away FTS% of 44%, indicating difficulties in scoring. The positive goal difference of the hosts (+5) in home matches and their advantage in effectiveness (xG 1.06 vs 0.97) further support their chances of winning. Despite better possession (58%), Ethiopia Bunna fails to translate this into efficiency, which, combined with the defensive solidity of the hosts (averaging 0.6 goals conceded), points towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopia Bunna | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
1.1 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.84 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna
Negele Arsi Ketema is 62% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.65 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.05 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Ethiopia Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
Ethiopia Bunna scores in 63% of matches (12 of 19 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 50% (10 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Ethiopia Bunna
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.65 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.37 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopia Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopia Bunna
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopia Bunna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.75 | 1.74 | ▲ 1.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 25% | 26% | ▲ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | • 55% | 54% | ▲ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 65% | 56% | ▲ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ethiopia BunnaGoalRamkel James
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Negele Arsi Ketema 0 - 0 - 1 Ethiopia Bunna. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 0:1 Ethiopia Bunna. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.10 goals per game on average and Ethiopia Bunna 0.84. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 42% of Ethiopia Bunna's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopia Bunna in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Ethiopia Bunna 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
The statistical background for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.