Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Ethiopian Medhin in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 9 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Ethiopian Medhin: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.96 and concedes 0.68 goals per match. Ethiopian Medhin scores 0.75 and concedes 0.79. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 32%, Ethiopian Medhin 38%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 24%, Ethiopian Medhin 25%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Ethiopian Medhin has higher xG: 1.28 vs 1.17. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.0 shots per match, Ethiopian Medhin: 7.4.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.52. Ethiopian Medhin: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.21.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (8 goals). Ethiopian Medhin: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema are the bookmakers' favorites on paper — they sit 3rd in the table with 11 wins this season versus Ethiopian Medhin's 5 wins (18th), and the home side’s seasonal record is 24 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home the hosts are defensively solid: 0.75 goals conceded per match on average and 42% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 0.92 goals on the road and have only 33% clean sheets. However, Ethiopian Medhin show better short-term form — in the last 5 matches they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 3 with an average of 1.6 points per match, whereas the hosts over the same period have 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, only 2 goals scored and 4 conceded and 1.0 point per match on average. The visitors create more chances and higher-quality opportunities: away xG 1.29 versus home xG 1.12 for the hosts, averaging 7.58 shots and 3.17 on target per match versus Negele’s 6.75 shots and 2.83 on target, with similar conversion rates 13% vs 14%. Considering the hosts’ league-position advantage and superior defence against the visitors’ offensive activity, I project a home win with estimated probabilities: 56% home win, 24% draw, 20% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Negele Arsi Ketema averages 0.5 goals per match this season (0.4 in the last 5), and their seasonal percentage of matches with both teams scoring is only 25% (20% in the last 5), which significantly limits the likelihood of BTTS. Ethiopian Medhin posts stronger attacking numbers: 1.0 goals on average this season and 1.4 in their last five matches, with a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% (40% in the last 5), meaning the visitors more frequently feature in Goal/Goal outcomes. Despite comparable xG (1.26 for the hosts vs 1.29 for the visitors), the hosts’ poor finishing (shot conversion 7% vs 13% for the visitors, shots on target 2.45 vs 3.17) indicates Negele create chances but fail to convert them, reducing the probability of both teams scoring. Additionally, both teams keep clean sheets in 33% of matches, while the league-level BTTS is 41%, so with the hosts’ weaker attack (0.5 vs 1.0) the No Goal signal is strongest; therefore I estimate BTTS - Yes at 35% and No at 65%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A mixed model combining xG and actual goal averages yields an expected value of 0.99 goals for Negele Arsi Ketema and 1.15 for Ethiopian Medhin, totaling 2.14 goals. The xG signal is higher: home xG 1.26 vs away 1.29 (xG against 1.21 and 1.37 respectively), suggesting potential ~1.32 xG for the home side and ~1.25 for the visitors, but the hosts severely underperform in conversion — shot conversion rate 7% versus 13% for the guests and a seasonal home goals average of only 0.5 — so I downgraded the forecast. Seasonal indicators show home matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 33% of cases and away matches in 58% (average ~45%), while the league average is 1.77 goals per match, which further justifies a cautious approach. This implies the strongest signal is Over 1.5: with expected 2.14 goals the probability of >1.5 is around 63%, whereas Over 2.5 is ~36% and Over 3.5 ~17%, so I recommend backing the over at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home team had a draw at the break in 8 of 12 matches (67%), and the away team also in 8 of 12 (67%), so HT=X is highly likely. After the break the away side has the greater chances — over the season away teams won 33% of matches versus only 8% for home wins, and away teams average 1.0 goals per match compared with 0.5 for the home side, which favors the away victory after 90 minutes. Additionally, the away team scored 13 goals before the break versus 8 for the hosts and in the last 5 fixtures they led at the break in 40% of cases, which supports the X/2 scenario. Qualitative metrics are similar (xG 1.29 vs 1.26), but the higher efficiency of the away team (conversion 13% vs 7%) together with the seasonal results leads me to assign X/2 the highest probability (40%), with X/X at 20% as a realistic alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ethiopian Medhin is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.6 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.75 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.68 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.79 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 64% of matches (16 of 25 matches), while Ethiopian Medhin keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 matches).
Ethiopian Medhin scores in 46% of matches (11 of 24 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 48% (12 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Ethiopian Medhin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.29 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopian Medhin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Medhin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.64 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.54 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 41% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 27% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 48% | 40% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 54% | • 54% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 60% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Negele Arsi KetemaGoalKitika Jemma
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Negele Arsi Ketema 1 - 0 - 0 Ethiopian Medhin. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 1:1 Ethiopian Medhin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.96 goals per game on average and Ethiopian Medhin 0.75. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 38% of Ethiopian Medhin's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopian Medhin in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Ethiopian Medhin 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.