Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema sits higher in the table (3rd place) and displays solid form at home, winning 45% of their home matches with only an 18% loss rate. The hosts boast a positive goal difference at their stadium (+4) and keep clean sheets in 45% of matches, which proves their good defensive organization. Mebrat Hayl, as the away team, performs significantly worse, winning only 18% of away games and failing to score in a staggering 64% of their road fixtures. Despite the visitors' better form over their last five overall matches (1.6 PPG), their offensive weakness away from home (0.64 goals on average) and the hosts' home advantage point towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema. Considering both teams' tendency to draw (36% for the hosts, 45% for the visitors), splitting the points is not out of the question; however, home-field advantage should give the hosts the crucial edge.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 15 March 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Mebrat Hayl: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.96 and concedes 0.61 goals per match. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.74 and concedes 0.57. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 30%, Mebrat Hayl 26%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 22%, Mebrat Hayl 22%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Negele Arsi Ketema has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.14. Negele Arsi Ketema: 6.8 shots per match, Mebrat Hayl: 7.2.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.48. Mebrat Hayl: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Mebrat Hayl: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema sits higher in the table (3rd place) and displays solid form at home, winning 45% of their home matches with only an 18% loss rate. The hosts boast a positive goal difference at their stadium (+4) and keep clean sheets in 45% of matches, which proves their good defensive organization. Mebrat Hayl, as the away team, performs significantly worse, winning only 18% of away games and failing to score in a staggering 64% of their road fixtures. Despite the visitors' better form over their last five overall matches (1.6 PPG), their offensive weakness away from home (0.64 goals on average) and the hosts' home advantage point towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema. Considering both teams' tendency to draw (36% for the hosts, 45% for the visitors), splitting the points is not out of the question; however, home-field advantage should give the hosts the crucial edge.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mebrat Hayl is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.6 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.74 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.61 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.57 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 57% (13 of 23 matches).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 43% of matches (10 of 23 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 52% (12 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.13 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.57 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 30% | 41% | ▼ 26% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 27% | ▼ 22% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 52% | 40% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 54% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 61% | 58% | ▲ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Negele Arsi Ketema 0 - 1 - 0 Mebrat Hayl. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 0:2 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.96 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.74. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 30% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 26% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The statistical background for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.