Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya: match statistics
Mekelakeya displays significantly better away form with a 50% win rate and zero away defeats this season, whereas Negele Arsi Ketema wins only 33% of home matches. The visitors hold a decisive advantage in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 2 goals per away match with a 22% conversion rate, while the hosts average just 1 goal at home with a 13% conversion rate. Mekelakeya also dominates possession (58% vs 46%) and boasts a superior xG record (1.35 vs 1.15), indicating higher quality chance creation. Recent form also favors the visitors – Negele collects points at a lower rate (2 PPG vs Mekelakeya's potential), and the guests never leave the pitch without scoring in away games (0% FTS). A goal difference of +6 for the visitors in away matches compared to just +1 for the hosts at home further confirms Mekelakeya's advantage in this clash.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Mekelakeya in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 4 January 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Mekelakeya: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.08 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Mekelakeya scores 1.38 and concedes 0.85. League average: 1.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 42%, Mekelakeya 54%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 42%, Mekelakeya 38%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Mekelakeya has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.18. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.9 shots per match, Mekelakeya: 9.6.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67. Mekelakeya: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.31.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (5 goals). Mekelakeya: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.76 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mekelakeya displays significantly better away form with a 50% win rate and zero away defeats this season, whereas Negele Arsi Ketema wins only 33% of home matches. The visitors hold a decisive advantage in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 2 goals per away match with a 22% conversion rate, while the hosts average just 1 goal at home with a 13% conversion rate. Mekelakeya also dominates possession (58% vs 46%) and boasts a superior xG record (1.35 vs 1.15), indicating higher quality chance creation. Recent form also favors the visitors – Negele collects points at a lower rate (2 PPG vs Mekelakeya's potential), and the guests never leave the pitch without scoring in away games (0% FTS). A goal difference of +6 for the visitors in away matches compared to just +1 for the hosts at home further confirms Mekelakeya's advantage in this clash.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.2 pts / match - Mekelakeya
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mekelakeya is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.38 goals / match - Mekelakeya
Negele Arsi Ketema is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.85 goals / match - Mekelakeya
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 67% of matches (8 of 12 matches), while Mekelakeya keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 matches).
Mekelakeya scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 42% (5 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mekelakeya
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mekelakeya is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.77 pts / match - Mekelakeya
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mekelakeya - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 38%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mekelakeya
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.83 | 1.76 | ▲ 2.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 44% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 42% | 28% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 38% | • 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 42% | 57% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 60% | ▲ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 2:0 Mekelakeya. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.08 goals per game on average and Mekelakeya 1.38. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 54% of Mekelakeya's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mekelakeya in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mekelakeya 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.