Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema presents significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and only 11% losses at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last five matches, while Mekelle Kenema achieved only 7 points (1.4 PPG). The goal difference in the guests' away matches is zero, and their high FTS% at the level of 56% in away matches indicates significant offensive problems. Negele Arsi Ketema scores an average of 1.11 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.06, which combined with a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average) gives them the edge. Mekelle Kenema has only 22% wins away and sits in 16th place in the table, which further speaks for the hosts, though the high number of draws for the guests (44%) suggests the possibility of a points split.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Mekelle Kenema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 5 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Mekelle Kenema: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.11 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Mekelle Kenema scores 0.94 and concedes 1.06. League average: 1.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 33%, Mekelle Kenema 56%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 28%, Mekelle Kenema 39%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 26%.
xG, shots and style
Mekelle Kenema has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.15. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.1 shots per match, Mekelle Kenema: 6.8.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.61. Mekelle Kenema: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Mekelle Kenema: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.70 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 26%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema presents significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and only 11% losses at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last five matches, while Mekelle Kenema achieved only 7 points (1.4 PPG). The goal difference in the guests' away matches is zero, and their high FTS% at the level of 56% in away matches indicates significant offensive problems. Negele Arsi Ketema scores an average of 1.11 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.06, which combined with a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average) gives them the edge. Mekelle Kenema has only 22% wins away and sits in 16th place in the table, which further speaks for the hosts, though the high number of draws for the guests (44%) suggests the possibility of a points split.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mekelle Kenema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.4 pts / match - Mekelle Kenema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.94 goals / match - Mekelle Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.06 goals / match - Mekelle Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Mekelle Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 matches).
Mekelle Kenema scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 50% (9 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mekelle Kenema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mekelle Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mekelle Kenema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mekelle Kenema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.78 | 1.70 | ▲ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 41% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 28% | 26% | ▲ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 56% | • 56% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 1:0 Mekelle Kenema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.11 goals per game on average and Mekelle Kenema 0.94. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 56% of Mekelle Kenema's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mekelle Kenema in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mekelle Kenema 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.