New York City vs New England Revolution: match statistics

New York City are currently enduring a poor run without a win in five matches, with a record of 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, scoring just 5 goals. However, they remain considerably more dangerous at home. The hosts average 2.08 goals per match on home soil from 1.48 xG, while New England Revolution score 1.40 goals away despite recording 1.58 xG. NYCFC also produce slightly more shots on target, 5.33 compared with 5.00, and convert their chances at a 16% rate, superior to the visitors’ 10%. Neither defence offers complete security, with the hosts conceding 1.50 goals at home and the visitors allowing 1.60 away. New England have also lost as many as 50% of their away matches and kept a clean sheet in only 10% of them. Revolution’s better recent form, having collected 7 points from their last five matches, reduces confidence in the pick, but NYCFC’s home attacking advantage points to a victory for the hosts.

The signal for goals from both sides is strengthened by New England’s profile, with BTTS recorded in 70% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for New York City, while the league average stands at 63%. Recent form also supports this scenario: BTTS landed in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games, with 1.4 and 1.2 goals conceded per match, respectively. New England are currently creating chances worth an average of 2.01 xG, while New York City allow opponents 1.57 xG, giving the visitors solid grounds to score. The hosts average 1.83 goals at home, while the Revolution concede 1.60 away from home, making their goal likely as well. The main risk to the pick is New York City’s 33% clean-sheet rate, but the overall attacking profile and recent results point more clearly towards BTTS - Yes.

New York City average 1.83 goals at home, while New England Revolution concede 1.60 away from home, which supports at least one goal for the hosts. The visitors create plenty of chances: their average xG stands at 1.58, rising to 2.01 over their last five matches, while the hosts allowed 1.57 xG during that period. The 1.5-goal line was covered in 75% of New York City’s matches and 80% of New England’s, while the league-wide average total is a high 3.19 goals. Both sides’ recent defensive form has also been far from solid, with New York City conceding 7 goals in their last five matches and New England 6. Over 1.5 therefore has the strongest statistical backing, while at the 2.5 line, the only concern is that this outcome occurred in just 40% of the hosts’ last five matches.

New York City have a clear advantage over the course of the season: they win 67% of their matches and average 2.17 points per game, while New England win only 30% of their matches and lose 50%. The hosts score an average of 1.83 goals, while their opponents concede as many as 1.60 goals away from home, which favours New York City taking the lead. Before half-time, New England had been trailing in 50% of their away matches, whereas New York City conceded only 0.67 goals per game in the first half, compared with 1.00 for the visitors. After the interval, the hosts have been particularly effective and disciplined over the season: they score 1.08 goals and concede just 0.25 per match, compared with New England’s 0.70 scored and 0.60 conceded. New York City’s weaker recent run, with no wins in their last five matches, reduces confidence in the selection; however, the season-long record and the hosts’ superiority in both halves still point most strongly to a scenario in which they lead at the break and secure the full-time win (1/1).