Newcastle United vs Leeds United: match statistics
Newcastle United displays significantly better home form, boasting a 60% win rate at home and an impressive recent run. The hosts average 1.8 goals per home match with a 13% shot conversion rate, whereas Leeds averages a mere 0.8 goals on the road and fails to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures. The expected goals (xG) differential also favors Newcastle—1.66 xG for the hosts versus 1.2 xG for the visitors on their travels. Leeds holds a dismal 10% away win rate and a goal difference of -12 on foreign soil; combined with Newcastle's solid defense (30% clean sheets), this gives the hosts a distinct advantage. Recent form reinforces Newcastle's superiority—averaging 2 points per match in the last five games compared to Leeds' 1.4—making a home victory the most probable scenario.
Newcastle United vs Leeds United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Newcastle United played Leeds United in Premier League (England). The match was played on 7 January 2026. Final score: 4:3.
Current form
Newcastle United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Leeds United: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Newcastle United scores 1.40 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Leeds United scores 1.30 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Newcastle United 60%, Leeds United 65%. Over 2.5: Newcastle United 60%, Leeds United 60%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Newcastle United has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.40. Newcastle United: 12.7 shots per match, Leeds United: 12.7.
Match halves
Newcastle United: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.70. Leeds United: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.65.
Goals by minute
Newcastle United: 76-90+ (7 goals). Leeds United: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Newcastle United displays significantly better home form, boasting a 60% win rate at home and an impressive recent run. The hosts average 1.8 goals per home match with a 13% shot conversion rate, whereas Leeds averages a mere 0.8 goals on the road and fails to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures. The expected goals (xG) differential also favors Newcastle—1.66 xG for the hosts versus 1.2 xG for the visitors on their travels. Leeds holds a dismal 10% away win rate and a goal difference of -12 on foreign soil; combined with Newcastle's solid defense (30% clean sheets), this gives the hosts a distinct advantage. Recent form reinforces Newcastle's superiority—averaging 2 points per match in the last five games compared to Leeds' 1.4—making a home victory the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Newcastle United | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Newcastle United is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Newcastle United · 1.3 goals / match - Leeds United
Newcastle United is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Newcastle United · 1.65 goals / match - Leeds United
Newcastle United scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Leeds United keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
Leeds United scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Newcastle United keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Newcastle United
Over / Under - Leeds United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Newcastle United is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.6 pts / match - Newcastle United · 1.25 pts / match - Leeds United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Newcastle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Leeds United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Newcastle United
Leeds United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Newcastle United | Liga | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.60 | 2.78 | ▲ 2.95 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 26% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 71% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Newcastle United 0 - 1 - 0 Leeds United. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
The Premier League match finished Newcastle United 4:3 Leeds United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
Newcastle United score 1.40 goals per game on average and Leeds United 1.30. The Premier League average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Newcastle United's matches and 65% of Leeds United's.
What form are Newcastle United and Leeds United in?
Over the last 5 games Newcastle United have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Leeds United 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
The statistical background for Newcastle United vs Leeds United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.