Newcastle United vs Liverpool: match statistics

Liverpool have the better record over their last five matches: they scored 7 goals, conceded 7, and collected 7 points through 2 wins and a draw. Newcastle scored just 6 goals over the same period, while conceding as many as 11, finishing the run with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats. The defensive contrast is particularly significant: the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last five outings, compared with 1.4 for Liverpool. The visitors also have a higher average points tally over this period, 1.4 versus Newcastle’s 0.8, indicating greater consistency in their results. The lack of detailed home-and-away data limits the extent of Liverpool’s advantage, but current form and Newcastle’s notably weaker defence point towards a Liverpool victory.

Newcastle recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their last 5 matches, while also conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, which clearly increases Liverpool’s chances of scoring. Liverpool averaged 1.4 goals during this period, while Newcastle’s defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.43. The hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals and created chances worth 1.31 xG, while Liverpool conceded 1.4 goals per game with an average xG against of 1.32. A warning sign is Liverpool’s BTTS rate of only 40% across their five most recent appearances; however, Newcastle’s recent defensive weakness and the comparable attacking figures of both teams slightly favour a goal from each side.

The most useful data comes from the last five matches, as the season-long figures in the dataset are 0. During this period, Newcastle scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded as many as 2.2, resulting in 17 total goals across five matches, or 3.4 per game. Liverpool averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with their matches producing an average of 2.8 goals. The xG indicators are slightly more conservative — 1.31 for Newcastle and 1.07 for Liverpool in attack — but the hosts’ weak defense, with 11 goals conceded, clearly supports a scenario featuring at least two goals. Over 1.5 has the edge, as even with regression from the high finishing efficiency of the recent results, the projected 2.75 goals leaves a substantial margin above the 1.5 line.

Liverpool have shown a clearly stronger first-half profile across their last five matches: they were leading at the break in 60% of games, scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded just 0.2. Over the same period, Newcastle were behind at half-time in 60% of their fixtures, scoring only 0.4 goals before the break while conceding an average of 1.2. The visitors also have the stronger current form, taking 1.4 points per match compared with the hosts’ 0.8, with a 40% win rate versus Newcastle’s 20%. After half-time, Liverpool score just 0.2 goals per game, but Newcastle allow opponents an average of 1.0 goal, while the hosts have lost 60% of second halves. The strongest scenario therefore remains a Liverpool lead at the break followed by a victory at full-time, although the visitors’ high 40% rate of second-half draws also increases the likelihood of outcomes involving a final share of the points.