Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: match statistics
Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme Kalju played Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 14 June 2026. Venue: Hiiu staadion. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Paide: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme Kalju scores 1.86 and concedes 0.71 goals per match. Paide scores 1.57 and concedes 1.36. League average: 3.16 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme Kalju 36%, Paide 64%. Over 2.5: Nõmme Kalju 43%, Paide 57%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.83 vs 1.54. Nõmme Kalju: 15.4 shots per match, Paide: 12.8.
Match halves
Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.14. Paide: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (8 goals). Paide: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.16 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-3. Average goals 2.20, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1): Nõmme Kalju, currently 2nd, averages 2.29 goals scored at home and only 0.86 conceded, while Paide (4th) averages 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded on the road. Form difference is clear over the last five matches: Kalju has 3 wins, 7 goals for and 4 against, averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas Paide has only 1 win, 6 goals scored, 12 conceded and 0.8 points per game. Quality-of-chances analysis confirms this: average xG for Kalju is 1.94 vs 1.65 for Paide, and xG against is 1.24 vs 1.51, indicating a home advantage in chance creation and limitation. Kalju also attempts more shots (16.57 vs 13.71) and more shots on target (5.86 vs 5.14) with similar finishing rates (14% vs 15%), so a higher volume of chances works in their favor. Considering a more stable home defense, superior xG metrics and recent form, I assess probabilities at 65% for the home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for a Paide win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have high season BTTS rates: Nõmme Kalju 57% and Paide 71%, versus a league average of 52%, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Paide scores an average of 2.0 goals per game, has xG 1.65 and 5.14 shots on target, and conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) with BTTS in 80% of those games, indicating a high probability of both scoring and conceding. Nõmme Kalju seasonally scores 1.14 and concedes 1.14 with 29% clean sheets, while in the last 5 matches they concede only 0.8 per game, which weakens the BTTS signal from the home side. Combined xG for both teams is around 3.08 (1.43 + 1.65), compared to a league average of 3.17, and Paide holds a clear advantage in shots on target (5.14 vs 3.29) and conversion rate (15% vs 10%), therefore the Goal/Goal scenario appears more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for the fixture is 3.09 (home: xG_for 1.43 vs away defense xG_against 1.51 → expected 1.47; away: xG_for 1.65 vs home defense xG_against 1.59 → expected 1.62), which is clearly above the 2.5 threshold. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive profile: the home side scores 1.14 goals on average and has 43% of matches Over 2.5, while the away side scores 2.00 goals and has 71% of matches Over 2.5; the league averages 3.17 goals per game. Both teams also show high BTTS rates: home 57% and away 71%, and in their last 5 matches the home team scored 7 and conceded 4 (1.4 and 0.8 per game), whereas the away team scored 6 and conceded 12 (1.2 and 2.4), indicating open games with multiple goals. Based on this I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 92% and Over 2.5 at 74%, because the expected 3.09 goals and the away side’s high Over2.5 frequency (71%) provide a strong signal for Over 2.5. I treat Over 3.5 as less certain (46%), since although the away side has 71% of matches above 3.5, the combined xG of 3.09 is below 3.5. Recommendation: bet Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I predict a half-time draw and a Paide win in the match (X/2), because Paide holds a clear offensive edge: they average 2.00 goals per game this season versus Kalju’s 1.14, with xG 1.65 versus 1.43. The visitors also have more shots on target (5.14 vs 3.29) and better conversion (15% vs 10%), and they average 1.00 goals by the break compared to the opponents’ 0.57; in the last 5 matches Paide registered 9 first-half goals (1.8 average). Kalju, however, have been in good form recently (3 wins in 5 matches, 60% win rate) and have kept a first-half clean sheet in 80% of their last 5 games, which supports the half-time draw scenario. The second half favors the visitors — Paide have scored at least one goal after the break in 100% of their away matches (over05_2hg_percentage_away 100.0) and average 2.29 goals in second halves away (AVG_2hg_away 2.29), so I expect a turnaround after the break in Paide’s favor. Additionally, BTTS rates (57% for Kalju, 71% for Paide) confirm both teams frequently find the net this season, increasing the likelihood that the HT draw will be broken.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme Kalju | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 0.8 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.86 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.57 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme Kalju is 92% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.71 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.36 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme Kalju scores in 86% of matches (12 of 14 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 matches).
Paide scores in 86% of matches (12 of 14 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 50% (7 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
Over / Under - Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.79 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.64 pts / match - Paide
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme Kalju
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme Kalju | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.57 | 3.16 | ▼ 2.93 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 53% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 66% | ▼ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 25% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 73% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 86% | 92% | • 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Nõmme Kalju 0 - 2 - 3 Paide. Average goals 2.20, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme Kalju 1:1 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nõmme Kalju and Paide?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Nõmme Kalju won 0, Paide won 3 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
Nõmme Kalju score 1.86 goals per game on average and Paide 1.57. The Meistriliiga average is 3.16 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 36% of Nõmme Kalju's matches and 64% of Paide's.
What form are Nõmme Kalju and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme Kalju have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Paide 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The statistical background for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.