Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics

Nõmme United have a clearly greater attacking potential at home, scoring an average of 2.08 goals per match compared with Harju Jalgpallikool’s 1.00 goals away from home. The hosts also create better chances: their average xG stands at 1.66 versus 1.45 for the visitors, while they average 4.92 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 3.36. Harju are nevertheless in better form in their recent fixtures, scoring 7 goals and winning 2 of their last 5 matches, whereas Nõmme have scored just 4 goals and lost 4 times. Both defences are vulnerable, but the hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their home matches, while their opponents lose as many as 73% of their away fixtures. Home advantage and Nõmme’s significantly higher scoring efficiency on home soil slightly tilt the prediction towards a home win, although the match should be closely contested.

Nõmme United averaged 1.77 goals per match this season, while Harju conceded as many as 1.91, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. The visitors have been less effective across the competition, averaging 1.00 goal, but they are currently scoring 1.4 goals per game, while Nõmme United have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches, or 2.4 per game. Harju’s attacking potential is also supported by an xG of 1.66 across their last five matches, alongside the very high 2.78 xG recorded by Nõmme United’s opponents. Seasonal BTTS figures are moderate—54% for the hosts and 45% for the visitors—but the combination of Nõmme United’s poor current defensive form and Harju’s high number of goals conceded gives a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Over 1.5 goals has the strongest statistical backing, as the two-goal threshold was exceeded in 85% of Nõmme United matches and 73% of Harju games. Nõmme United concede an average of 1.46 goals per season, rising to 2.4 across their last five matches, while Harju have scored 1.4 goals per game over the same period. The hosts’ defense allows an average xG of 2.03, increasing to 2.78 recently, which clearly strengthens the prediction of one or two goals for the visitors. The hosts should also create chances against a Harju side that concedes an average of 1.91 goals and has kept a clean sheet in only 9% of matches. The estimated total of 3.10 goals also supports Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 remains by far the most probable and safer signal.

Nõmme United have a clear first-half advantage: they have led at the break in 38% of their matches, while Harju have led in only 9% and have gone into half-time trailing in as many as 55%. The hosts average 1.08 goals before the break, while the visitors concede 1.09 during this period, strongly supporting the scenario of Nõmme leading after 45 minutes. Across the full match, Nõmme score an average of 1.77 goals, compared with Harju conceding 1.91, and they also have a 46% win rate versus their opponents’ 27%. The hosts’ recent form has been weaker, as they have collected only 0.6 points per game across their last five appearances, but their season-long advantage—and particularly the highly favourable first-half matchup—primarily point towards the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.