Notts County vs Grimsby Town: match statistics
Notts County presents decidedly better home form with 65% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +18 in matches as hosts. The team occupies 4th place in the table and has earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last 5 matches, while Grimsby Town has only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. xG statistics clearly favor the hosts – 1.48 xG For against 1.02 xG Against in home matches, testifying to a qualitative advantage. Grimsby has problems with defense on away trips, conceding an average of 1.38 goals per match with a zero goal difference, and their away form (38% wins, 25% losses) does not inspire optimism. Notts County's high efficiency (16% shot conversion) and possession dominance (57%) additionally argue for a home victory, though Grimsby's tendency to draw (38% away) suggests the visitors may put up resistance.
Notts County vs Grimsby Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Notts County played Grimsby Town in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Notts County: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Grimsby Town: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Notts County scores 1.58 and concedes 0.97 goals per match. Grimsby Town scores 1.41 and concedes 1.16. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Notts County 58%, Grimsby Town 47%. Over 2.5: Notts County 52%, Grimsby Town 44%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Grimsby Town has higher xG: 1.61 vs 1.32. Notts County: 11.2 shots per match, Grimsby Town: 14.1.
Match halves
Notts County: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.94. Grimsby Town: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Notts County: 46-60 (11 goals). Grimsby Town: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Notts County presents decidedly better home form with 65% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +18 in matches as hosts. The team occupies 4th place in the table and has earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last 5 matches, while Grimsby Town has only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. xG statistics clearly favor the hosts – 1.48 xG For against 1.02 xG Against in home matches, testifying to a qualitative advantage. Grimsby has problems with defense on away trips, conceding an average of 1.38 goals per match with a zero goal difference, and their away form (38% wins, 25% losses) does not inspire optimism. Notts County's high efficiency (16% shot conversion) and possession dominance (57%) additionally argue for a home victory, though Grimsby's tendency to draw (38% away) suggests the visitors may put up resistance.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Notts County | Grimsby Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Notts County is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Notts County · 1.2 pts / match - Grimsby Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Notts County is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.58 goals / match - Notts County · 1.41 goals / match - Grimsby Town
Notts County is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.97 goals / match - Notts County · 1.16 goals / match - Grimsby Town
Notts County scores in 85% of matches (28 of 33 matches), while Grimsby Town keeps a clean sheet in 38% (12 of 32 matches).
Grimsby Town scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Notts County keeps a clean sheet in 30% (10 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Notts County
Over / Under - Grimsby Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Notts County is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - Notts County · 1.31 pts / match - Grimsby Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Notts County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Grimsby Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Notts County
Grimsby Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Notts County | Liga | Grimsby Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.55 | 2.57 | • 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 54% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 26% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 69% | ▼ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 76% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Notts County 1 - 0 - 0 Grimsby Town. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Notts County vs Grimsby Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Notts County 0:1 Grimsby Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Notts County vs Grimsby Town?
Notts County score 1.58 goals per game on average and Grimsby Town 1.41. The EFL League Two average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Notts County's matches and 47% of Grimsby Town's.
What form are Notts County and Grimsby Town in?
Over the last 5 games Notts County have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Grimsby Town 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Notts County vs Grimsby Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.