Novara vs Pergolettese: match statistics

Novara have a slight edge thanks to their more effective home form: they score an average of 2 goals per match at home, while Pergolettese have yet to score away and have failed to find the net in 100% of such fixtures. The hosts also create significantly better chances, with an xG of 1.29 compared to the visitors’ mere 0.67, while their average of 10 shots per match exceeds Pergolettese’s 6. Novara’s defence is not entirely reliable, however, as they concede an average of 2 goals at home with an xGA of 1.75, which increases the likelihood of a draw. Pergolettese have recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, but their ongoing away winless run and average of just 0.5 shots on target per game favour the hosts. A narrow Novara win is therefore the most likely outcome, although a draw remains a realistic scenario.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: in the season data, both teams have recorded 0% of matches with goals scored by both sides, while Pergolettese have yet to score. The visitors average just 6 shots and 0.5 shots on target per match, with an xG of only 0.67, which clearly limits their chances of finding the net against Novara. Novara have also been inefficient in front of goal: despite averaging 11 shots per match, their xG stands at 1.09, and the current data indicate that they have not scored. The last five matches show slightly higher BTTS figures—40% for Novara and 20% for Pergolettese—but both teams conceded only 0.8 goals per match during this period. With a league average of 2.0 goals and 47% BTTS, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

The match profile points to a limited number of chances, particularly for Pergolettese, who produce just 0.67 xG away from home and average 6 shots. Novara create more, averaging 11 shots and 1.09 xG, but their projected output is limited to around 1.27 goals despite their opponents’ weaker 1.64 xG conceded. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.0 goals and conceded 0.8, while only 40% of their games went Over 2.5 goals. All available matches in the current splits for both teams finished below 3.5 goals, which is consistent with the league-wide average of just 2.0 goals. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest option, as the model projects 2.12 total goals and provides a substantial safety margin even in a three-goal scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Novara victory at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches. The opening phase should be cautious: Novara averaged only 0.2 goals before the break and Pergolettese 0.6, while none of the hosts’ last five matches produced at least two first-half goals. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to Novara, who scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded 0.4 in their last five outings, compared with Pergolettese’s 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. In addition, the hosts generate a higher average xG, 1.09 compared with 0.67, while the visitors lost 40% of their recent matches, compared with just 20% defeats for Novara. This suggests that an evenly balanced first half could be settled in the hosts’ favour after the break, making the HT/FT X/1 outcome the most likely scenario.