Novorizontino vs Avaí: match statistics

Novorizontino sit 4th, while Avaí are only 16th, and the hosts have won 12 of their 25 matches this season, suffering just 6 defeats. At home, Novorizontino win 58% of their matches, score an average of 1.58 goals and create chances worth 1.91 xG—significantly more than Avaí away from home, where their average xG stands at 1.07. The hosts’ defence also looks more solid: they allow 0.96 xG and concede an average of 1.00 goal per home match, while the visitors concede 1.50 goals away from home, with 1.83 xG against them. Avaí have lost 58% of their away matches and manage just 2.83 shots on target per game, compared with 5.83 for Novorizontino, further strengthening the case for the hosts’ superiority. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Novorizontino have conceded just 3 goals during that run, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is slightly negative, as Novorizontino records BTTS - Yes in only 38% of matches, compared with the league average of 48%, while Avaí stands at 58%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches, whereas Avaí fail to score in 25%, increasing the likelihood that at least one side will finish the game without scoring. Over their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS - Yes in just 40% of games, with Novorizontino conceding only 3 goals, an average of 0.6 per match. Avaí have averaged 1.07 xG this season and register 2.83 shots on target per game, so they may struggle to break down the hosts' well-organized defence. Novorizontino should have the attacking edge with 1.47 xG and 4.23 shots on target on average, but the more likely scenario is that the visitors fail to respond with a goal.

Novorizontino have solid grounds for scoring, as they average 1.47 xG and 4.23 shots on target per match, while Avaí allow opponents 1.83 xG. However, the visitors are less productive in attack: they average 1.08 goals, 1.07 xG and just 2.83 shots on target, while the hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches. A key signal for a low-scoring game is the fact that under 3.5 goals was recorded in 92% of Novorizontino’s matches and 75% of Avaí’s. Even with the hosts’ strong recent form, during which they scored 9 goals and conceded only 3 in five matches, the projected total of 2.35 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line. Under 3.5 therefore offers the greatest advantage, as the data from both teams significantly limits the risk of four or more goals.

Novorizontino have a clear advantage in the first halves: they have led at the break in 31% of their matches, while Avaí have never gone into half-time ahead. The hosts concede just 0.31 goals per match before the break, whereas the visitors score only 0.17 goals in this phase and have failed to score in the first half in each of their last five appearances. Novorizontino’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.47 compared with Avaí’s 1.07, while shots on target stand at 4.23 versus 2.83. Avaí have a poor away record, losing 58% of their matches and conceding an average of 1.50 goals, while keeping a clean sheet in only 17% of games. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT outcome in which the hosts take the lead at the break and maintain it until the final whistle.