OFK Pirin vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

Both teams have lost all 3 league matches played so far, but Hebar 1918 clearly offer greater attacking potential: they have scored 6 goals, compared with just 1 for OFK Pirin. Away from home, the visitors average 2 goals per match, 9.5 shots and 3.5 shots on target, while Pirin have yet to score at home, average just one shot on target and fail to score in 100% of their matches. Hebar’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.33 versus the hosts’ 0.93, alongside greater possession, 50% to 38%. Both defences are highly vulnerable, as each concedes an average of 3 goals in their respective home or away setting, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. The visitors’ poor run, comprising one draw and four defeats in their last five matches, limits confidence in the pick, but their more effective attack gives them a slight edge.

BTTS has occurred in 100% of both teams’ matches at this stage of the season, compared with a league average of 56%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. OFK Pirin concede an average of 3.0 goals per match, while Hebar 1918 also concede 3.0, significantly increasing the chances that both sides will create opportunities to score. The hosts average 15.0 shots and generate an xG of 1.78, while the visitors record 3.5 shots on target per match and have a very high 21% finishing rate. Pirin’s more recent form lowers confidence in the pick, as their BTTS rate over the last five matches stands at 40%; however, Hebar have reached 80% in this period, while both teams continue to concede heavily, at 2.6 and 2.2 goals per match respectively. A goal for both sides therefore remains clearly more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Both teams have clear defensive issues: Pirin conceded an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, while Hebar conceded 2.2. During the same period, Pirin’s matches averaged 3.6 goals, as did Hebar’s games, clearly exceeding the league average of 2.81. Pirin create chances worth 1.78 xG per match, while Hebar allow opponents 1.70 xG, giving the hosts strong scoring potential. The visitors generate 1.33 xG, and Pirin’s defence allows opponents 1.44 xG, making a goal for Hebar a realistic scenario as well. Over 1.5 goals was recorded in 100% of both teams’ matches so far, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick without taking on the greater risk of a higher line.

A half-time draw followed by an OFK Pirin win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for the visitors. Pirin averaged 0.4 goals before half-time, while Hebar also averaged 0.4, indicating a limited difference in the early stages. After the interval, the hosts have greater attacking potential: their average xG stands at 1.78 versus Hebar’s 1.33, and they also record an average of 15 shots compared with their opponents’ 9.5. However, both teams are defensively unstable, conceding 1.6 goals each in the second halves of their last five matches. Therefore, a late draw and a turnaround in favour of the visitors remain significant risks. Pirin’s stronger recent points form—0.6 points per match compared with Hebar’s 0.2—slightly reinforces the X/1 scenario.