OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

OFK Pirin have lost all 7 of their matches so far, scoring just 2 goals and conceding as many as 16 in their last five games. At home, the hosts have lost 100% of their matches, conceding an average of 3.00 goals and keeping no clean sheets, which significantly reduces their chances. Ludogorets II have also failed to win any of their last five matches, but they have suffered only 3 defeats in 7 games this season, compared with Pirin’s 7 defeats from 7. The visitors’ away defence allows an average of just 1.00 goals, three times fewer than the hosts’ defence, while Ludogorets II also register 7.5 shots per match compared with Pirin’s 5. The low average xG figures for both sides—0.98 for the hosts and 0.91 for the visitors—suggest a tight and relatively low-scoring match, but Pirin’s disastrous run and extremely weak defence point towards a narrow away victory.

The strongest signal is the poor current scoring form of both teams: in their last 5 matches, OFK Pirin and Ludogorets II averaged just 0.4 goals each. BTTS - Yes occurred in only 20% of Pirin’s last five matches and in 40% of the visitors’ games, compared with a league average of 46%. Ludogorets II failed to score in 50% of their matches this season and average only 0.5 goals per game, while Pirin drew a blank in 33% of matches. The xG figures from the last five games also remain low, at 0.86 for the hosts and 0.97 for the visitors, limiting the chances of both teams finding the net. Pirin have recently conceded as many as 3.2 goals per game, but their run of five consecutive defeats and just 2 goals scored suggest a scenario in which one team could win to nil rather than an exchange of goals. Therefore, BTTS - No is the preferred selection.

The attacking profile of both teams remains limited: Pirin average 1.0 goals, while Ludogorets II score just 0.5 goals per match. In their last five fixtures, both teams averaged only 0.4 goals per game, with xG figures of 0.86 and 0.97 respectively. The hosts have a weak defensive record, conceding an average of 3.2 goals in their last five matches, but their opponents scored only 2 goals during this period, which limits the potential for a one-sided, high-scoring game. The 3.5 line has gone Under in 100% of both teams' matches to date, while Under 2.5 landed in 67% of Pirin's matches and 100% of Ludogorets II's. The projected total of 1.98 goals points primarily to a clear preference for the Under 3.5 goals bet.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Ludogorets II win, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Pirin scored just 0.4 goals per game, lost all five fixtures and conceded as many as 3.2 goals per match. The hosts have been particularly vulnerable after the break: in their last five games, they conceded an average of 2.2 goals in the second half while scoring only 0.2 themselves. Ludogorets II have also failed to impress offensively, but they average 1.25 points per game after half-time compared with Pirin’s 0.67, while their average xGA stands at 1.51, giving the visitors a realistic chance of exploiting their opponents’ defensive weaknesses late in the game.