Olimpia vs Guaraní: match statistics

Olimpia have a clear home advantage: they win 71% of their matches, score an average of 2.00 goals and concede just 0.79 goals per game. Guaraní win only 14% of their away fixtures, score 0.93 goals per match, and fail to find the net in 43% of games. The hosts create more chances, averaging 16.57 shots and 5.36 on target compared with their opponents’ 10.43 and 3.21, while their average xG stands at 1.75 versus 1.17 for the visitors. Current form also favors Olimpia, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals in that run, while Guaraní have managed just 5 goals and recorded one victory. Guaraní’s high 57% share of away draws increases the possibility of a split of the points, but Olimpia’s attacking superiority and more solid defensive structure point to a home win.

The BTTS signal is primarily supported by Olimpia’s current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of fixtures, while the hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Guaraní recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded. Olimpia have recently created chances worth 1.70 xG, while Guaraní have registered 1.36 xG, giving both sides a realistic basis for finding the net. Seasonal data is more cautious, with BTTS standing at 50% for the hosts and 43% for the visitors, while Guaraní have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. Despite this defensive counterbalance, Olimpia’s weaker recent defence, which conceded 9 goals in 5 matches, slightly shifts the prediction towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The 2.50-goal projection is based on Olimpia’s attack, which scores an average of 1.43 goals, being matched against a Guaraní defense conceding just 1.00 goal per match. The visitors average 0.93 goals scored, while Olimpia concede 1.07, limiting the potential for a clearly high-scoring game. Over the course of the season, under 3.5 goals landed in 71% of Olimpia’s matches and as many as 79% of Guaraní’s, while over 3.5 goals occurred in only 29% and 21% of cases, respectively. The last five matches were more open, with Olimpia recording at least three goals in 80% of their games and Guaraní in 60%, but their average xG figures of 1.70 and 1.36 do not clearly point to a four-goal scenario. The strongest signal therefore remains under 3.5, as Guaraní’s defensive consistency and the long-term profiles of both teams clearly support a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Olimpia win at full-time, as Guaraní were level at the break in 9 of their 14 matches, or 64% of cases. The first halves of both teams are usually cautious: Olimpia average 0.43 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while Guaraní also average 0.43, and the hosts keep a clean sheet before half-time in 64% of matches. After the break, the advantage should shift to Olimpia, who score an average of 1.00 goals in the second half compared with Guaraní’s 0.50, while averaging 1.20 goals in that period across their last five matches. The hosts also have a clearly superior overall record, winning 50% of their matches compared with Guaraní’s 14% win rate, while their average goals scored stands at 1.43 against the visitors’ 0.93. Current form further supports Olimpia: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 2.0 goals per game during that period, whereas Guaraní have won only once and averaged 1.0 goal.