Once Caldas vs Llaneros: match statistics

Once Caldas win 50% of their home matches, while Llaneros win 25% of their away games and lose 44%. The hosts average 1.75 goals at home with an xG of 1.92, while the visitors score just 0.88 goals away from home with an xG of 1.11. The gap in attacking potential is also reflected in shots on target: Once Caldas average 6.75 per match compared with 3.31 for Llaneros. Both teams have been in poor form recently: the hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5, which makes this prediction less certain. Even so, Once Caldas’ advantage in chance creation and their home record point to a home win.

BTTS landed in 60% of Once Caldas matches and 50% of Llaneros matches, rising to 60% and 80%, respectively, across each team’s last five games. Both defences have been vulnerable lately: the hosts have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match, while the visitors have conceded 1.8. Once Caldas recorded an xG of 2.01 during this period, while Llaneros averaged 1.4 goals scored, giving both sides a solid basis to find the net. However, caution is warranted: across the season, the visitors have averaged just 0.88 goals and failed to score in 25% of their matches. Even so, the recent BTTS frequency and the number of goals conceded by both teams give BTTS - Yes a moderate edge.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome has occurred in 80% of Once Caldas matches and 94% of Llaneros matches. The teams average 1.20 and 0.88 goals per game this season, respectively, tempering expectations of a high-scoring game. The pace has picked up over the last five matches, however: at least three goals were scored in 40% of the home side’s matches and 80% of the away side’s, making the 2.5 line less convincing. The expected total of 2.55 goals also takes the teams’ recent xG figures of 2.01 and 1.48 into account, but does not assume this upturn will be fully sustained. Under 3.5 goals therefore remains the strongest pick, although the visitors’ recent attacking form increases the risk.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Once Caldas went into the break level in 53% of their matches, compared with 50% for Llaneros. Although the hosts average 0.8 first-half goals to the visitors’ 0.31, those averages have been 0.4 and 1.2 respectively over the last five matches, so Once Caldas’ early advantage is far from certain. A draw at full-time is supported by Once Caldas’ 47% draw rate this season, as well as their modest average of 1.2 goals scored compared with 0.88 for the visitors. In second halves, the hosts average only 0.4 goals and have drawn that half in 53% of matches, reducing the likelihood of a decisive result after a level first half. Therefore, X/X is the highest-rated HT/FT option, although Once Caldas leading at the break remains a notable possibility, given that Llaneros have been trailing at half-time in 38% of their matches.