Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay: match statistics
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Orange County SC played Monterey Bay in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 4 October 2026. Venue: Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Orange County SC: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Monterey Bay: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Orange County SC scores 1.35 and concedes 1.54 goals per match. Monterey Bay scores 1.04 and concedes 1.77. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Orange County SC 58%, Monterey Bay 62%. Over 2.5: Orange County SC 42%, Monterey Bay 50%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Monterey Bay has higher xG: 1.27 vs 1.16. Orange County SC: 10.0 shots per match, Monterey Bay: 10.3.
Match halves
Orange County SC: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.88. Monterey Bay: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.62.
Goals by minute
Orange County SC: 46-60 (10 goals). Monterey Bay: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.20, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Orange County SC sit 10th and have won 10 of their 26 matches, while 23rd-placed Monterey Bay have managed just 4 wins in 26 games. Home advantage is a significant factor: the hosts have won 38% of their home matches, while the visitors are yet to win away and have lost 77% of their away games. Orange County average 1.08 goals per match at home, compared with Monterey Bay’s 0.77 goals away, and the visitors concede an average of 2 goals in such fixtures. The quality of chances also favours the hosts: their home xG is 1.14, against opponents’ away xG of 1.06, while Monterey Bay allow chances worth an average xG of 1.85 on the road. Neither team has been convincing in recent results—the hosts have won 1 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have won none—but Monterey Bay’s much weaker away record makes an Orange County win the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams scored in 62% of their matches this season, above the league average of 54%. Orange County SC concede an average of 1.54 goals per match, rising to 2.0 over their last five games, giving Monterey Bay a chance to score despite their modest season average of 0.77 goals scored per match. The visitors, meanwhile, concede an average of 2.0 goals, while their opponents average 1.47 xG, making a home goal look fairly likely. This signal is weakened by the fact that Monterey Bay have failed to score in 38% of their matches, and Orange County SC have scored just 3 goals in their last five games. Despite these caveats, the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides and their season-long scoring rates give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
At least two goals were scored in 77% of Orange County SC matches and 69% of Monterey Bay matches, giving Over 1.5 goals stronger support than the other options. The hosts average 1.31 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.00; their xG figures are 1.47 in attack and 1.85 in defence, respectively, pointing to scoring opportunities for Orange County. Monterey Bay average just 0.77 goals scored and have failed to score in 38% of matches, so their contribution to the total should be assessed more cautiously. However, in their last five matches, the hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals and the visitors 1.8, further supporting a scenario with at least two goals. With a projected total of 2.70 goals, I rate Over 1.5 goals as the strongest pick, while the 2.5 line remains close to evenly balanced.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Orange County SC were level at the break in 62% of their matches, compared with 54% for Monterey Bay; this figure rose to 80% in the visitors’ last five games. The case for a home win later on is supported by their advantage in average xG, at 1.47 compared with their opponents’ 1.06, and by the fact that Monterey Bay concede an average of 2.00 goals per match. In their last five games, Orange County won the second half 40% of the time, while Monterey Bay lost it in 80% of matches, supporting the scenario of a result being decided after the break. The visitors have yet to win a match in the sample analysed and have lost 77% of their games, so among the options featuring a draw at half-time, I rate a home win at full-time highest. Confidence in the pick is tempered by Orange County’s recent dip in attack, having scored an average of just 0.6 goals in their previous five matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Orange County SC | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Orange County SC is 150% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Orange County SC · 0.4 pts / match - Monterey Bay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Orange County SC is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.35 goals / match - Orange County SC · 1.04 goals / match - Monterey Bay
Orange County SC is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.54 goals / match - Orange County SC · 1.77 goals / match - Monterey Bay
Orange County SC scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while Monterey Bay keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 26 matches).
Monterey Bay scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Orange County SC keeps a clean sheet in 27% (7 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Orange County SC
Over / Under - Monterey Bay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Orange County SC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Monterey Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 15%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Orange County SC
Monterey Bay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Orange County SC | Liga | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.88 | 2.72 | • 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 54% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | • 27% | 28% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 66% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 78% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Orange County SC 2 - 1 - 2 Monterey Bay. Average goals 2.20, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
The USL Championship match finished Orange County SC 1:2 Monterey Bay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Orange County SC and Monterey Bay?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Orange County SC won 2, Monterey Bay won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
Orange County SC score 1.35 goals per game on average and Monterey Bay 1.04. The USL Championship average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Orange County SC's matches and 62% of Monterey Bay's.
What form are Orange County SC and Monterey Bay in?
Over the last 5 games Orange County SC have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Monterey Bay 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.