Paide vs Kuressaare: match statistics
Paide vs Kuressaare: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paide played Kuressaare in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 31 May 2026. Venue: Paide linnastaadion. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Paide: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Kuressaare: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paide scores 1.62 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Kuressaare scores 1.00 and concedes 1.77. League average: 3.19 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paide 62%, Kuressaare 54%. Over 2.5: Paide 62%, Kuressaare 62%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Paide has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.42. Paide: 12.5 shots per match, Kuressaare: 11.3.
Match halves
Paide: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.85. Kuressaare: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.54.
Goals by minute
Paide: 0-15 (4 goals). Kuressaare: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.19 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 3-2-0. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are hosts Paide — sitting 4th in the table versus Kuressaare’s 9th — and at home they win 50% of matches compared to the visitors’ 17% away win rate. Offensively Paide score on average 1.17 goals at home while Kuressaare manage only 0.67 on the road; xG values are similar (Paide xG 1.40 vs Kuressaare xG 1.44), but Paide convert chances more efficiently (shot conversion 10% vs 6%). Defensively the home side holds a clear advantage — Paide concede 1.17 goals per home match versus Kuressaare’s 2.00 away goals conceded, and average xG against is 1.63 for Paide and 2.30 for Kuressaare. In the last 5 matches Paide have 2 wins and 3 losses (1.2 points per game), while Kuressaare have 1 win and 4 losses in that period (0.6 points per game) and 0% clean sheets away. Considering better conversion (FTS 17% vs 50%), lower goals conceded and superior league position, I tip a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario looks more likely: Paide has a seasonal BTTS of 57% while Kuressaare is at 50%, and both teams record BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches. Both sides concede frequently — Paide averages 1.57 goals conceded per match this season (2.2 in the last 5), Kuressaare 2.0 per match this season (1.6 in the last 5) — increasing the probability that both will find the net. Offensively, seasonal xG are almost identical: 1.43 for Paide and 1.44 for Kuressaare, with Paide posting a higher xG of 1.66 in the last 5 versus the opponent's 1.35; additionally the shot-to-goal conversion rate is 11% for Paide and 6% for Kuressaare, which favors the hosts in attack. No clean sheets this season (0% for both) and a high league average goals of 3.22, plus matches over 2.5 goals involvement (57% and 67% for home and away) further support BTTS. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 70% versus 30% for No Goal, therefore the best selection is 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model indicates a high-scoring game: total expected goals are approximately 3.44 (Paide 1.85 vs Kuressaare 1.59), calculated as an average of seasonal xG and xG from the last 5 matches. xG breakdown shows Paide attack xG 1.43 vs Kuressaare defense allowing 2.30 xG, yielding about 1.87 goals; Kuressaare attack 1.44 vs Paide defense 1.95 yields about 1.70; averaging with the last 5 matches (1.66+2.02 and 1.35+1.63) results in final values ~1.85 and ~1.59. The league averages 3.22 goals per match, seasonal over 1.5 rates are 71% for Paide and 83% for Kuressaare, and the last 5 matches for both teams show 60% over 2.5; this further supports a goals signal. Using a Poisson distribution with total lambda 3.44 gives ~86% probability of Over 1.5, ~67% for Over 2.5 and ~45% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most probable pick is Over 1.5. Additionally, Paide averages 4.43 shots on target per match vs 3.50 for Kuressaare and has a conversion rate of 11% vs 6%, confirming the home side's advantage in creating and converting chances.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Paide led at the break in 3 of 7 matches (43%), while Kuressaare never led at the break (0%); hosts score an average of 0.71 goals by half-time versus 0.17 for the visitors. Over full matches Paide average 1.29 goals per game versus 0.67 for Kuressaare and have a higher season win rate: 43% compared to the visitors' 17%, which favors the hosts for the Full-Time result. The teams’ xG are similar (Paide 1.43 vs Kuressaare 1.44), but Paide have a higher shot conversion rate of 11% versus 6%, meaning with comparable xG the hosts convert chances better. The combined average for the home side leading at the break is around 55% (average of Paide’s 43% leads and Kuressaare being behind at the break 67%), and additionally Paide have better half-time points (HTPoints 11 vs 2), therefore the 1/1 scenario (lead at Half-Time and win at Full-Time) is the strongest. I therefore propose HT/FT 1/1 with an estimated probability of 41%, with alternatives of moderate backing being X/1 (14%) and X/X (12%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paide | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paide is 62% better for: goals scored per match.
1.62 goals / match - Paide · 1 goals / match - Kuressaare
Paide is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Paide · 1.77 goals / match - Kuressaare
Paide scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 13 matches).
Kuressaare scores in 54% of matches (7 of 13 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 23% (3 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paide
Over / Under - Kuressaare
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paide is 54% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.54 pts / match - Paide · 1 pts / match - Kuressaare
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kuressaare - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paide
Kuressaare
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Paide | Liga | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.00 | 3.19 | ▼ 2.77 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 51% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 62% | 66% | ▼ 62% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 23% | 25% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 54% | 74% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | • 92% | 93% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Paide 3 - 2 - 0 Kuressaare. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paide vs Kuressaare?
The Meistriliiga match finished Paide 1:1 Kuressaare. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paide and Kuressaare?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Paide won 3, Kuressaare won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paide vs Kuressaare?
Paide score 1.62 goals per game on average and Kuressaare 1.00. The Meistriliiga average is 3.19 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Paide's matches and 54% of Kuressaare's.
What form are Paide and Kuressaare in?
Over the last 5 games Paide have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Kuressaare 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paide vs Kuressaare?
The statistical background for Paide vs Kuressaare — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.