Paide vs Vaprus: match statistics

Paide sit 3rd, while Vaprus are 7th, with the hosts winning 13 of 26 league matches compared with the visitors’ 9 victories. At home, Paide average 1.42 goals scored with an xG of 1.66, whereas Vaprus allow opponents an xG of 2.10 away from home and concede as many as 2.17 goals per match. The hosts average 14.08 shots and 3.75 shots on target at home, clearly more than Vaprus away, at 8.42 and 3.17 respectively. Paide’s defence concedes just 1.00 goal per home match, while the visitors have lost 58% of their away games and have a -13 goal difference on the road. Recent form is relatively similar, as Paide have scored 9 goals and won 3 of their last 5 matches, but home advantage and Vaprus’ defensive frailties support a home win.

The signal for both sides to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 64% of Paide matches and as many as 75% of Vaprus games, compared with the league average of 59%. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.8 goals per game, while Paide conceded an average of 1.6 and Vaprus 1.8. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable to conceding: Vaprus allows an average of 2.17 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in only 17% of its games. Paide is not impenetrable either, with its opponents generating an average of 1.91 xG against them, while Vaprus produced 1.37 xG across its last five matches. The BTTS scenario is therefore more likely than a No Goal outcome, especially since both teams failed to score in only 14% and 17% of their matches, respectively.

Paide score an average of 1.64 goals per match, while Vaprus concede as many as 2.17, clearly strengthening the outlook for goals from the hosts. Both teams are also in strong attacking form: over their last five matches, they have scored 1.8 goals per game each, while conceding 1.6 and 1.8 respectively. Their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.97 for Paide and 1.37 for Vaprus, while their opponents generated 1.62 and 1.99 xG respectively. At least two goals were scored in 79% of Paide's matches and 83% of Vaprus' games, while the Estonian league records a high average of 3.12 goals per match. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the season data, current form and the visitors' weaker defence give a very high probability of surpassing this low line.

Paide have the stronger potential to secure the final victory: they score an average of 1.64 goals per match, while Vaprus concede as many as 2.17, and the hosts have won 43% of their matches compared with 25% for the visitors. A draw at half-time is supported by the more cautious starts made by both sides: Paide were level after 45 minutes in 43% of their matches, while Vaprus were level in 50%; across the hosts’ last five appearances, this figure was as high as 80%. After the break, Paide score an average of 0.86 goals, while Vaprus concede 1.17, creating a favourable opportunity for the hosts to turn a closely contested match in their favour. In addition, Paide average 1.43 points per match after half-time, compared with 0.92 for Vaprus. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Paide victory at the final whistle (X/1).