Pakhtakor vs Andijan: match statistics

Pakhtakor sit 2nd, while Andijan are 7th, and over the course of the season the hosts have recorded 11 wins and just 1 defeat, compared with the visitors’ record of 8 wins and 8 losses. At home, Pakhtakor average 1.80 goals, create chances worth 1.58 xG and maintain 60% possession, whereas Andijan score 1.22 goals away from home with 1.35 xG. The hosts also register more shots on target per match, 4.9 compared with 3.44, and are more clinical, converting 14% of their attempts compared with the visitors’ 11%. A key factor is Andijan’s attacking inconsistency: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches and fail to find the net in 44% of away games. Pakhtakor are not flawless defensively either, conceding an average of 1.20 goals at home, so a draw remains a realistic alternative; however, the hosts’ superior quality and control of the game make them the preferred choice.

The signal for BTTS - No is clear, as both teams have recorded a low percentage of matches with goals scored by both sides throughout the season: Pakhtakor 30% and Andijan 33%, compared with 53% for the league. Andijan have not recorded a single BTTS match in their last five fixtures, scoring just 2 goals—an average of 0.4 per game. Pakhtakor are particularly solid without the ball, conceding 0.9 goals per match this season and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; in their last five, they conceded just 3 goals. The visitors are also not a team that scores regularly, having failed to find the net in 44% of their league matches, while the hosts average 1.3 goals per game. Although Andijan's xG from their last five matches stands at 1.21, their poor finishing and Pakhtakor's defensive strength favor a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Pakhtakor concede an average of just 0.90 goals per match this season and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, significantly limiting Andijan’s attacking potential. The visitors have scored only 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.40 per game, and both teams failed to score in any of those fixtures. Pakhtakor have also shown a controlled scoring profile recently: across their last five league matches, they scored 6 and conceded only 3 goals, while the teams’ average xG over this period stands at 1.05 and 1.21, respectively. The 3.5 line has gone under in 90% of Pakhtakor’s matches and 78% of Andijan’s, while the projected total of 2.15 goals does not point towards a four-goal game. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the clearest edge, although two goals or fewer also remains a realistic outcome.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Pakhtakor victory at full-time, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 70% of their matches, while Andijan have been level at the break in 100% of their last five games. The first halves are particularly tight: Pakhtakor average 0.30 goals scored and 0.20 conceded, whereas the visitors score 0.33 and concede 0.33 goals on average. After the break, the hosts improve significantly, averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded, while their second-half win rate stands at 60%, compared with Andijan’s 44%. Pakhtakor also have the better full-season metrics: they win 50% of their matches compared with 33% for the visitors, create an average of 1.54 xG versus 1.35, and record 4.40 shots on target per match compared with their opponents’ 3.44. Recent form further reinforces the hosts’ advantage, with Andijan scoring just 0.4 goals per game across their last five appearances, while Pakhtakor have conceded only 0.6.