Palmeiras vs Bahia: match statistics
Palmeiras vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Palmeiras played Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 9 October 2026. Venue: Allianz Parque. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Palmeiras: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Bahia: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Palmeiras scores 1.68 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Bahia scores 1.54 and concedes 1.25. League average: 2.67 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Palmeiras 57%, Bahia 68%. Over 2.5: Palmeiras 50%, Bahia 54%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Palmeiras has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.61. Palmeiras: 14.9 shots per match, Bahia: 14.5.
Match halves
Palmeiras: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.82. Bahia: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Palmeiras: 16-30 (9 goals). Bahia: 31-45+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.67 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Palmeiras are the favourites at home: they have won 69% of their home matches, while Bahia have won 43% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.77 goals scored and just 0.69 conceded on home soil, whereas the visitors average 1.5 goals both scored and conceded away from home. The quality of chances also favours Palmeiras: their home xG is 1.71, while Bahia allow chances worth an average xG of 1.90 away. However, the visitors are in better recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 11 goals in the process, compared with Palmeiras’ 2 wins and 5 goals. Even so, the hosts’ solid defence—conceding just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, against Bahia’s 7—tips the prediction in their favour.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has landed in 71% of Palmeiras matches and 64% of Bahia matches, both above the league average of 59%. Both teams score regularly: Palmeiras average 1.57 goals per match, while Bahia average 1.50, and they have failed to score in only 7% and 14% of their matches, respectively. The hosts’ chances of scoring are further boosted by Bahia conceding an average of 1.50 goals and allowing opponents chances worth 1.90 xG. The main obstacle to BTTS - Yes is Palmeiras’ defence, which has conceded just 0.60 goals per match across its last 5 games. Bahia have nevertheless scored 11 goals over that period, and 4 of their 5 matches ended with BTTS, making it more likely that both teams will score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is for at least 2 goals: this threshold was reached in 93% of Palmeiras matches and 79% of Bahia matches. Palmeiras average 1.57 goals scored, while Bahia concede 1.50; in addition, the hosts’ xG is 1.73 compared with the 1.90 xG conceded by the visitors. Bahia can also get on the scoresheet, averaging 1.50 goals, although Palmeiras concede just 1.00. The 2.5 line is less certain: it was exceeded in 50% of Palmeiras matches and 57% of Bahia matches, while in the teams’ last 5 matches the figures were 20% and 80%, respectively. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.75 total goals, I favor Over 1.5 as a clearer signal than the other lines.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Palmeiras hold a slight edge before the break: they average 0.93 goals in first halves compared with Bahia’s 0.79, while conceding 0.64 against their opponents’ 0.71. The home side also generate an average of 1.73 xG per match, compared with 1.48 for the visitors, while Bahia allow opponents 1.90 xG, compared with 1.20 for Palmeiras. The hosts’ defence supports the prospect of them maintaining their lead, conceding an average of 0.36 goals after the break, compared with Bahia’s 0.79. The signal is not strong, however: both teams were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, and Bahia won 4 of those 5 games. Even so, the combination of the home side’s advantage in chance creation and their more solid defence makes Palmeiras to lead at the break and win the match the most likely single HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Palmeiras | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bahia is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Palmeiras · 2.4 pts / match - Bahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palmeiras is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.68 goals / match - Palmeiras · 1.54 goals / match - Bahia
Palmeiras is 67% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Palmeiras · 1.25 goals / match - Bahia
Palmeiras scores in 86% of matches (24 of 28 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
Bahia scores in 89% of matches (25 of 28 matches), while Palmeiras keeps a clean sheet in 43% (12 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Palmeiras
Over / Under - Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palmeiras is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.96 pts / match - Palmeiras · 1.43 pts / match - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Palmeiras - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Palmeiras
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Palmeiras | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.43 | 2.67 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 57% | 60% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 23% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Palmeiras 1 - 0 - 2 Bahia. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Palmeiras vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Palmeiras 1:0 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won 1, Bahia won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras score 1.68 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.54. The Serie A average is 2.67 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Palmeiras's matches and 68% of Bahia's.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Palmeiras have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Bahia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
The statistical background for Palmeiras vs Bahia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.