Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar: match statistics
Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Pamba Jiji played Mtibwa Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 18 June 2026. Venue: CCM Kirumba Stadium. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Pamba Jiji: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Mtibwa Sugar: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Pamba Jiji scores 1.00 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Mtibwa Sugar scores 0.88 and concedes 1.42. League average: 2.15 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Pamba Jiji 38%, Mtibwa Sugar 50%. Over 2.5: Pamba Jiji 46%, Mtibwa Sugar 46%. League level: BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Pamba Jiji has higher xG: 1.31 vs 0.98. Pamba Jiji: 5.8 shots per match, Mtibwa Sugar: 3.7.
Match halves
Pamba Jiji: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.42. Mtibwa Sugar: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.46.
Goals by minute
Pamba Jiji: 0-15 (6 goals). Mtibwa Sugar: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.15 goals per match, BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Pamba Jiji holds a clear advantage in key metrics: the hosts average 1.33 goals in home matches, register 7.5 shots per game with 2.8 on target, and have a conversion rate of 19%; Mtibwa on the road scores only 0.33 goals per match, averages 4.78 shots with 2.11 on target and converts just 5%. Additionally, Pamba produces higher expected goals (xG) at home of 1.34 versus 0.87 xG for Mtibwa away, while Mtibwa’s opponents average 1.78 xG against them compared to 1.28 xG against Pamba, indicating a weaker away defence. Defensively the hosts concede 0.92 goals on average at their stadium and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas Mtibwa concedes 1.42 goals away and has a negative away record (-13). Over the last 5 matches both teams average 0.8 points (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), but Mtibwa have shipped 12 goals in those five games versus 7 conceded by Pamba and are yet to record an away win (0% away wins). Considering the home advantage in efficiency, chance quality (xG) and defensive stability, I estimate Pamba Jiji’s probability of victory at 68%, draw 18% and a Mtibwa win 14%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Pamba at home has a high BTTS 64% and averages 1.36 goals scored (xG 1.09), indicating the hosts regularly create scoring chances. However, Mtibwa away has only 33% BTTS and just 0.33 goals scored on the road with a conversion rate of 5% from 4.78 shots and 2.11 shots on target, which significantly reduces the visitors' chance to score. Additionally, the league shows a low share of BTTS matches (36%) and a high proportion of clean sheets for one of the teams (78%). In the last 5 matches Mtibwa scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and had 60% BTTS while Pamba in their last 5 had 4 goals (0.8) and 40% BTTS — signals are mixed, but elements pointing to low away effectiveness prevail. Considering the visitors' seasonal scoring output (0.33) and low conversion, I project a higher probability of No Goal/No Goal: 62% 'No' versus 38% 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model projects about 2.53 total goals: 1.44 for Pamba Jiji and 1.09 for Mtibwa Sugar. This split derives from xG metrics – Pamba has xG 1.09, Mtibwa xG 0.87, while Mtibwa concedes on average 1.78 xG per game versus 1.31 for Pamba; hence averages (1.09+1.78)/2 ≈ 1.44 and (0.87+1.31)/2 ≈ 1.09. Season figures show Pamba scores 1.36 goals at home on average compared to Mtibwa’s 0.33 away, but the visitors have a very low shot conversion rate of 5% vs 13% for the hosts, which limits the translation of xG into actual goals. Historical shares of matches with over 3.5 goals are 29% for Pamba and 8% for Mtibwa, and the modelled probability for over 3.5 is about 25%, so there is a significant advantage (~75%) for the under 3.5 line. Therefore I recommend taking the under 3.5: over 1.5 is possible (≈72%) given 79% of Pamba’s matches exceed 1.5, but the strongest and safest signal from the data is under 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw appears likely: Pamba Jiji were level at the break in 46% of matches and Mtibwa in 42% (approximately 44% on average), while a lead at the break is uncommon (only 8% for each side). The home side have a seasonal offensive edge: they average 1.36 goals per game versus Mtibwa’s 0.33; the home xG is 1.09 versus the visitors’ 0.87; and shot conversion rates are 13% vs 5%. Mtibwa score rarely — they failed to score in 67% of this season’s matches — and conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five games, which increases the likelihood of a home turnaround after the break. Pamba Jiji are also stronger in second halves: they have 22 points in second halves and average 1.69 points per such match versus Mtibwa’s 8 points and 0.67; the hosts have scored six goals in minutes 76–90 compared to the visitors’ one. Therefore the X/1 scenario (Half-Time draw, Home win Full-Time) is regarded as the strongest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Pamba Jiji | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.69 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Pamba Jiji is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Pamba Jiji · 0.88 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Pamba Jiji is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Pamba Jiji · 1.42 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Pamba Jiji scores in 62% of matches (16 of 26 matches), while Mtibwa Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).
Mtibwa Sugar scores in 58% of matches (15 of 26 matches), while Pamba Jiji keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Pamba Jiji
Over / Under - Mtibwa Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Pamba Jiji is 62% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Pamba Jiji · 0.69 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Pamba Jiji - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mtibwa Sugar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Pamba Jiji
Mtibwa Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Pamba Jiji | Liga | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.12 | 2.15 | ▲ 2.31 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 38% | 36% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 46% | 39% | ▲ 46% |
| Clean sheets | • 38% | 39% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | • 62% | 62% | ▲ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Pamba Jiji 0 - 0 - 1 Mtibwa Sugar. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Pamba Jiji 4:0 Mtibwa Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar?
Pamba Jiji score 1.00 goals per game on average and Mtibwa Sugar 0.88. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Pamba Jiji's matches and 50% of Mtibwa Sugar's.
What form are Pamba Jiji and Mtibwa Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Pamba Jiji have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Mtibwa Sugar 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar?
The statistical background for Pamba Jiji vs Mtibwa Sugar — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.