Panevėžys vs Žalgiris: match statistics
Panevėžys vs Žalgiris: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Panevėžys played Žalgiris in A Lyga (Lithuania). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Panevėžys: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Žalgiris: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Panevėžys scores 0.80 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Žalgiris scores 1.40 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Panevėžys 50%, Žalgiris 40%. Over 2.5: Panevėžys 50%, Žalgiris 50%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Žalgiris has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.18. Panevėžys: 10.0 shots per match, Žalgiris: 15.2.
Match halves
Panevėžys: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.10. Žalgiris: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Panevėžys: 16-30 (3 goals). Žalgiris: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
A Lyga: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-3. Average goals 4.60, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Žalgiris holds a clear statistical edge: the visitors have scored 14 goals this season versus 8 for Panevėžys and boast a +5 away goal differential, while the hosts have a home GD of 0. Moreover, the quality of chances favors the visitors — Žalgiris averages xG 1.92 on the road, with 17.25 shots per game and 4.5 on target, whereas Panevėžys at home posts xG 1.38, 12 shots and 4 on target. Defensively the gap is also significant: Žalgiris has 100% clean sheets in away matches and concedes on average 0 goals away, while Panevėžys concedes 0.75 goals at home on average and has only 25% of matches without conceding. In the last 5 matches Panevėžys has earned 1.2 points per game (2 wins, 3 losses), and Žalgiris 1.0 point per game (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), but the visitors are more efficient per shot — 7% conversion vs 6%. Considering 14 vs 8 goals this season, higher xG (1.92 vs 1.38), more shots (17.25 vs 12) and a perfect run of away clean sheets, I predict a Žalgiris victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Panevėžys has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus 0% for Žalgiris, but in the last 5 matches both teams record BTTS at 40%, indicating a mix of a long-term home signal and balanced short-term form. xG analysis shows realistic chances for both sides: Žalgiris has xG_for 1.92 against the home xG_against 1.38, and Panevėžys has xG_for 1.58 against the away xG_against 1.09, so both generate ~1.5+ xG. Both teams average 4.5 on-target shots; Žalgiris averages 17.25 shots per match vs 13.83 for Panevėžys and, despite lower conversion (7% vs 11%), creates more chances, while the hosts have conceded 16 goals vs 10 for Žalgiris, which increases the probability of visitor scoring and a BTTS scenario. Against this stands a high league clean sheet expected rate of 75% and a league BTTS of 40%, so considering all numbers I assess 65% for "BTTS - Yes" and 35% for "No Goal" as the most justified forecast.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model combining average xG (home attack 1.58 vs away defense 1.09; away attack 1.92 vs home defense 1.38) yields expected 1.34 xG for Panevėžys and 1.65 xG for Žalgiris, total 2.99 goals. Total xG=2.99 corresponds to roughly an 80% probability of at least 2 goals (over 1.5), consistent with season rates of 83% of Panevėžys matches >1.5 and 50% for Žalgiris. For the 2.5 line the model calculates ~57% chance of over (P(total≥3)≈57.5%), while seasonally Panevėžys have 67% of matches >2.5 and Žalgiris 25%; in the last 5 matches Žalgiris recorded 60% over 2.5, so over 2.5 is moderately likely. Over 3.5 has only about a 35% probability (seasonally 33% for Panevėžys and 0% for Žalgiris), therefore the strongest signal from the data is over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Žalgiris led at the break in 50% of their matches and concede 0.0 goals on average with a 100% clean-sheet rate at halftime this season, which strongly increases the likelihood of them maintaining the lead. Panevėžys led at the break in only 17% of fixtures, concedes an average of 0.83 goals before the break and has conceded 9 first-half goals so far, so the home side is more vulnerable to conceding in the opening 45 minutes. Offensively Žalgiris produces 1.92 xG per match versus Panevėžys’s 1.58 xG and scores 1.25 goals per game on average compared to the hosts’ 1.5, indicating greater creative output from the visitors despite slightly higher finishing efficiency for the home side. Additionally, the visitors have already scored in the 0–15 minute window (once), hold a 50% win rate this season and 0% defeats, whereas Panevėžys has lost 50% of their matches, which favors a final victory for Žalgiris. For these reasons the strongest signal is the 2/2 scenario (Žalgiris leading at half-time and winning) — I allocated 35% to it and 30% to X/2 (draw at half-time, visitors win), totaling a 65% chance of a win for the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Panevėžys | Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Žalgiris is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - Panevėžys · 1.4 goals / match - Žalgiris
Žalgiris is 60% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - Panevėžys · 1 goals / match - Žalgiris
Panevėžys scores in 60% of matches (6 of 10 matches), while Žalgiris keeps a clean sheet in 50% (5 of 10 matches).
Žalgiris scores in 70% of matches (7 of 10 matches), while Panevėžys keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Panevėžys
Over / Under - Žalgiris
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Panevėžys is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.6 pts / match - Panevėžys · 1.4 pts / match - Žalgiris
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Panevėžys - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 30%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Žalgiris - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Panevėžys
Žalgiris
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (A Lyga).
Teams vs league
| Panevėžys | Liga | Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.40 | 2.50 | ▼ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 41% | • 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 37% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 69% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Panevėžys 2 - 0 - 3 Žalgiris. Average goals 4.60, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Panevėžys vs Žalgiris?
The A Lyga match finished Panevėžys 2:1 Žalgiris. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Panevėžys and Žalgiris?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Panevėžys won 2, Žalgiris won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Panevėžys vs Žalgiris?
Panevėžys score 0.80 goals per game on average and Žalgiris 1.40. The A Lyga average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Panevėžys's matches and 40% of Žalgiris's.
What form are Panevėžys and Žalgiris in?
Over the last 5 games Panevėžys have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Žalgiris 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Panevėžys vs Žalgiris?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.