Paredes vs AD Marco 09: match statistics
Paredes vs AD Marco 09: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paredes played AD Marco 09 in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Paredes: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. AD Marco 09: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paredes scores 1.19 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. AD Marco 09 scores 0.78 and concedes 1.07. League average: 2.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paredes 37%, AD Marco 09 44%. Over 2.5: Paredes 37%, AD Marco 09 33%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Paredes has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.41. Paredes: 11.4 shots per match, AD Marco 09: 11.2.
Match halves
Paredes: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.33. AD Marco 09: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.37.
Goals by minute
Paredes: 0-15 (8 goals). AD Marco 09: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.20 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-0. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a draw: Paredes has 32 goals this season versus AD Marco 09's 21, but at home the hosts draw as many as 62% of matches and win 38% (no home defeats recorded in the data). Paredes' defense is a clear advantage — conceding an average of 0.31 goals per home game with 69% clean sheets — whereas AD on the road scores only 0.54 goals on average and has 38% clean sheets. Offensively Paredes averages 12 shots (5 on target) and records xG 1.57 at home with a 10% conversion, compared to AD's 11.15 shots (4.62 on target), xG 1.39 and 5% conversion away. Recent form favors the visitors (AD has 2 wins and 3 draws in 5 matches, 1.8 points per game), while Paredes' last five show a 1-1-3 record and 0.8 points per game, producing a low-scoring scenario and increasing the likelihood of a shared point.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back No BTTS in this match. AD Marco 09 failed to score in 54% of their matches this season, and their goals average is only 0.54 per game versus 1.0 for Paredes, which significantly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Despite similar xG (1.42 for Paredes vs 1.39 for AD Marco), AD Marco have a low shot conversion of 5% on 4.62 shots on target, while Paredes convert 9% on 4.0 shots on target, so the hosts create chances more efficiently. Additionally, in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% for Paredes and only 20% for AD Marco, and the league has a high clean sheet rate of 62%, which together gives a stronger signal for No (No Goal/clean sheet expected) than for Yes (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I back the Over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal. Both teams have seasonal rates of matches with over 1.5 goals: Paredes 64% and AD Marco 54% (average ≈59%), and the league averages 2.2 goals per match; therefore I estimate the chance of Over 1.5 at 72%. The xG for both sides is 1.42 (Paredes) and 1.39 (AD Marco), which translates to expected 1.40 and 1.25 goals respectively, a combined 2.65 expected goals — clearly above 1.5. The 2.5 line is more uncertain: seasonal Over2.5 are 43% and 23% (average 33%), so with expected 2.65 I assign ≈47% probability to Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is unlikely (seasonOver35 14% and 8%), therefore I rate Over 3.5 at only 12% and take the downside on that line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-Time statistics indicate a dominance of draws: Paredes were level at HT in 57% of matches, AD Marco 09 in 69%, with home teams leading in only 21% of games versus 8% for away teams. In the second half, however, the advantage goes to Paredes — average goals after the break are 1.07 with 79% of matches seeing a goal after half-time, while AD Marco average 0.77 and 54%. Season-long figures confirm the strength of the hosts: average goals 1.00 vs 0.54, average points 1.64 vs 0.69, and better shot conversion rate — 9% conversion versus 5% for the visitors. Additionally, Paredes scored 14 first-half goals this season compared to AD Marco’s 11, and in the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 6 goals by the break against 1 for the visitors, which suggests the most probable scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paredes | AD Marco 09 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AD Marco 09 is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Paredes · 1.8 pts / match - AD Marco 09
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paredes is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Paredes · 0.78 goals / match - AD Marco 09
Paredes is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.74 goals / match - Paredes · 1.07 goals / match - AD Marco 09
Paredes scores in 56% of matches (15 of 27 matches), while AD Marco 09 keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
AD Marco 09 scores in 59% of matches (16 of 27 matches), while Paredes keeps a clean sheet in 44% (12 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paredes
Over / Under - AD Marco 09
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paredes is 69% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.81 pts / match - Paredes · 1.07 pts / match - AD Marco 09
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paredes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AD Marco 09 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paredes
AD Marco 09
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| Paredes | Liga | AD Marco 09 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.93 | 2.20 | ▼ 1.85 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 49% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 37% | 38% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 31% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 65% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 56% | 73% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Paredes 3 - 0 - 0 AD Marco 09. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
The Liga 3 match finished Paredes 2:2 AD Marco 09. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paredes and AD Marco 09?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Paredes won 3, AD Marco 09 won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Paredes score 1.19 goals per game on average and AD Marco 09 0.78. The Liga 3 average is 2.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Paredes's matches and 44% of AD Marco 09's.
What form are Paredes and AD Marco 09 in?
Over the last 5 games Paredes have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and AD Marco 09 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
The statistical background for Paredes vs AD Marco 09 — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.