Parma vs Genoa: match statistics

Parma are also still without a win this season, but their attacking numbers at home are clearly better than Genoa’s away from home: they average 0.5 goals from an xG of 1.06, while the visitors have yet to score on the road and generate just 0.82 xG. The hosts average 10 shots and 2.5 on target per match, compared with 8 and just 1 for Genoa, which limits the visitors’ attacking potential. Particularly significant is that Genoa have lost 100% of their away matches so far and have failed to score in any of them, despite maintaining 54% possession. Neither defense has kept a clean sheet, but Parma allow opponents a higher xG—1.61 compared with Genoa’s 1.45—so a draw remains a realistic scenario. I give Parma a slight edge due to home advantage and the greater number of chances they create, although a low-scoring game appears the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Genoa’s extremely limited attacking output: away from home, they average 0.00 goals, manage only 1.0 shot on target, and have a 0% shot conversion rate. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, while their season BTTS rate stands at 0%, compared with Parma’s 67% at home. Current attacking form is also poor, with Parma averaging 0.4 goals and Genoa 0.6 over their last five matches, while BTTS has landed in just 40% of games for both teams. Although Parma concede an average of 2.33 goals at home and allow opponents an xG of 2.14, Genoa’s low away xG of 0.82 and failure to score support the expectation that at least one team will keep a clean sheet.

Both teams are in poor scoring form: Parma have scored only 2 goals and Genoa 3 in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 and 0.6 goals per game, respectively. During the same period, matches involving either team went Over 2.5 goals in just 20% of cases, despite both sides conceding an average of 1.6 goals. The underlying chance quality points to a moderate goal tally, as Genoa’s latest xG stands at 1.46, while Parma allow opponents an xG of 1.90; however, the visitors’ away scoring efficiency remains very low. A forecast of 2.35 goals clearly favors Under 3.5 goals, while four or more goals would require a result significantly above the current attacking level of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams have been level at the break in 40% of their last five matches. Parma have not scored a single first-half goal during this period, while Genoa have averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half, clearly supporting a cautious start and a 0-0 scoreline. However, the hosts have been very poor over the full 90 minutes, averaging 0.4 goals and 0.2 points across their last five appearances, which is why the draw/ Genoa win turnaround scenario receives as much as 19%. Genoa also provide no strong basis for confidence in an outright victory, having lost 60% of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game. After the break, both teams average 0.4 goals, while in 80% of their recent matches the second half produced at least one goal, favouring a draw potentially decided by isolated goals.