PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior: match statistics
PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
PEC Zwolle played Excelsior in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
PEC Zwolle: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Excelsior: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
PEC Zwolle scores 1.31 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Excelsior scores 1.00 and concedes 1.69. League average: 3.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: PEC Zwolle 69%, Excelsior 62%. Over 2.5: PEC Zwolle 62%, Excelsior 59%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Excelsior has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.12. PEC Zwolle: 9.8 shots per match, Excelsior: 12.0.
Match halves
PEC Zwolle: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.59. Excelsior: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
PEC Zwolle: 0-15 (9 goals). Excelsior: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.17 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back PEC Zwolle to win based on a 50% home win rate versus Excelsior’s 21% away win rate. PEC averages 1.29 goals per home match with an xG of 1.14, while Excelsior scores 1.07 goals away with an xG of 1.27 — the visitors generate slightly more xG (1.27 vs 1.14) but convert less efficiently (10% vs 13%). Defensively the hosts are stronger: Zwolle concedes 1.21 goals at home on average, whereas Excelsior concedes 2.00 goals away, and the away goal difference is -13 compared to the hosts’ +1. Form underpins the advantage: Zwolle averages 1.2 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Excelsior’s 0.2; goals in the last 5 are 4 for Zwolle and 3 for the visitors. Considering the higher home win percentage, better shot conversion (13% vs 10%) and Excelsior’s weaker away defense, I assess probabilities at 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams give a strong signal for BTTS - Yes: PEC Zwolle has BTTS at 53%, Excelsior 71%, league average 63%; in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games. Defenses of both sides are prone to conceding: PEC concedes 1.4 goals per match (58 conceded this season), Excelsior 2.0 goals per match (49 conceded), and in the last 5 fixtures both teams conceded 8 goals each (avg 1.6 per match). Attacking xG indicates chance creation from both sides: PEC generates 1.4 xG with actual 0.93 goals scored (difference 0.47), Excelsior 1.27 xG with 1.07 goals scored (difference 0.20). Clean sheets are rare: 20% for PEC and 14% for Excelsior. Shot on target stats 4.13 vs 3.93 and shooting accuracy 7% vs 10% further confirm realistic scoring opportunities for both teams. Recommendation: BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability 68% vs 32%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-and-defensive model indicates an expected total goals of 3.07 — calculated as the average of PEC Zwolle’s attacking xG 1.40 and xG conceded to Excelsior 1.80 (yielding 1.60 for the home side) and the average of Excelsior’s attacking xG 1.27 and xG conceded to PEC 1.67 (yielding 1.47 for the away side). A Poisson distribution with lambda=3.07 gives probabilities of Over 1.5 goals at ~81%, Over 2.5 at ~59% and Over 3.5 at ~37%, which aligns with seasonal rates: home Over 1.5 67% and away Over 1.5 93%, and Over 2.5 at 53% and 64% respectively. Additionally, PEC have conceded 58 goals this season, Excelsior 49, and Both Teams To Score rates are 53% for PEC and 71% for Excelsior, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches PEC scored 4 and conceded 8, while Excelsior scored 3 and conceded 8, confirming defensive issues for both sides and a tendency toward higher-scoring games. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) with an estimated probability of about 81%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back X/1 (draw at half-time, PEC Zwolle to win) because a half-time draw is common for the home side — PEC were level at the break in 40% of matches — and first-half scoring is low: PEC 0.47 goals/HT versus 0.57 goals/HT for Excelsior. PEC also have superior offensive metrics: xG 1.40 versus 1.27 for Excelsior and more shots on target (4.13 vs 3.93), which suggests greater potential to create chances after the break despite lower shooting conversion (7% vs 10%). Excelsior concede on average 2.0 goals per match compared with 1.4 conceded by PEC and are in worse form (Excelsior 0% wins in the last 5 matches vs 20% for PEC), so the visitors’ susceptibility to conceding increases. Both teams produce a significant number of goals in the second half (on average 1.4 for PEC and 1.64 for Excelsior), and specifically Excelsior concede more after the break (1.14 second-half goals vs 0.93 for PEC), which raises the probability of the home side deciding the match after half-time. Based on this, a half-time draw and a PEC win (X/1) appears to be the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| PEC Zwolle | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
PEC Zwolle is 500% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - PEC Zwolle · 0.2 pts / match - Excelsior
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
PEC Zwolle is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - PEC Zwolle · 1 goals / match - Excelsior
Excelsior is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - PEC Zwolle · 1.69 goals / match - Excelsior
PEC Zwolle scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Excelsior keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
Excelsior scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while PEC Zwolle keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - PEC Zwolle
Over / Under - Excelsior
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
PEC Zwolle - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 28%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Excelsior - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 24%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| PEC Zwolle | Liga | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.31 | 3.17 | ▼ 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 63% | • 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 62% | 62% | ▼ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 20% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 81% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 79% | 84% | • 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: PEC Zwolle 0 - 0 - 1 Excelsior. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
The Eredivisie match finished PEC Zwolle 2:2 Excelsior. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
PEC Zwolle score 1.31 goals per game on average and Excelsior 1.00. The Eredivisie average is 3.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 69% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 62% of Excelsior's.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in?
Over the last 5 games PEC Zwolle have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Excelsior 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.