Peñarol vs Nacional: match statistics
Peñarol vs Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Peñarol played Nacional in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 30 August 2026. Venue: Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Peñarol: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Nacional: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Peñarol scores 1.68 and concedes 0.84 goals per match. Nacional scores 1.44 and concedes 1.32. League average: 2.36 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Peñarol 52%, Nacional 56%. Over 2.5: Peñarol 48%, Nacional 64%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Peñarol has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.48. Peñarol: 14.6 shots per match, Nacional: 11.7.
Match halves
Peñarol: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.96. Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.84.
Goals by minute
Peñarol: 76-90+ (13 goals). Nacional: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.36 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 2-3-1. Average goals 1.83, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Peñarol come into the match as league leaders and are clearly in better form: they have scored 13 goals in their last five games, winning four and drawing one, while conceding just 2 goals. Over the same period, Nacional recorded three wins and two defeats, with a 6:6 goal difference. At home, Peñarol average 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.87, registering 15.29 shots and 6.43 shots on target per match, while Nacional create chances worth an average of 1.37 xG away from home. The hosts also have the stronger defensive record, conceding 1.07 goals per home game compared with Nacional’s 1.83 away from home, while the visitors have lost as many as 50% of their league away matches. Nacional could pose a threat thanks to a comparable xG against opponents away from home, standing at 1.22, but the advantage in form, attacking intensity and home advantage points to a Peñarol victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Peñarol has a season BTTS rate of 46%, while over the last five matches this figure has fallen to 40%, with just 0.4 goals conceded per game. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches and have allowed opponents to score only 2 goals across their last five outings, making it significantly harder for Nacional to get on the scoresheet. Nacional records BTTS in 67% of its matches this season, but its average goals scored over the last five games is only 1.2, while Peñarol has conceded an average of just 0.85 goals per game throughout the season. The visitors’ attack has an xG of 1.37; however, the hosts’ defence restricts opponents to an average xG of 0.87. Therefore, the more likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Peñarol has a clear basis for scoring goals, averaging 1.46 goals and generating 1.60 xG, while Nacional concedes as many as 1.83 goals per away match. The hosts’ form further strengthens this signal: they have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game, with an average xG of 1.74. Nacional provides an additional argument for at least two goals, as its matches finished Over 1.5 goals in 83% of cases, while Peñarol reached this line in 69% of matches. At the same time, the hosts’ very strong defence, conceding 0.85 goals per game this season and only 2 goals in their last 5 outings, limits the outlook for higher lines. Therefore, the best choice is Over 1.5 goals: the projected 2.60 goals gives this option a clearer edge than the riskier Over 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Peñarol has a clearly stronger home profile: they score an average of 1.46 goals and concede just 0.85, while Nacional concede as many as 1.83 goals per away match. The advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with Peñarol’s xG standing at 1.60 compared with Nacional’s average xG conceded of 1.22. The hosts led at the break in 31% of matches, compared with just 17% for the visitors, and in their last five games Peñarol were ahead at half-time in 60% of cases. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.00 goal and win the second half in 46% of matches, whereas Nacional lose the second half in 42% of their appearances. In addition, current form favours Peñarol: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals while conceding just 0.4. Therefore, the strongest scenario is for the hosts to lead at the break and secure the full-time victory (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Peñarol | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Peñarol is 117% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Peñarol · 1.2 pts / match - Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Peñarol is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.68 goals / match - Peñarol · 1.44 goals / match - Nacional
Peñarol is 57% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.84 goals / match - Peñarol · 1.32 goals / match - Nacional
Peñarol scores in 84% of matches (21 of 25 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 matches).
Nacional scores in 80% of matches (20 of 25 matches), while Peñarol keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Peñarol
Over / Under - Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Peñarol is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.52 pts / match - Peñarol · 1.28 pts / match - Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Peñarol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Peñarol
Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Peñarol | Liga | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.52 | 2.36 | ▲ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 50% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 48% | 44% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 29% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 68% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 72% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Peñarol 2 - 3 - 1 Nacional. Average goals 1.83, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Peñarol vs Nacional?
The Primera División match finished Peñarol 0:1 Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Peñarol and Nacional?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 2, Nacional won 1 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 1.83 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Peñarol vs Nacional?
Peñarol score 1.68 goals per game on average and Nacional 1.44. The Primera División average is 2.36 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Peñarol's matches and 56% of Nacional's.
What form are Peñarol and Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Peñarol have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Nacional 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Peñarol vs Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Peñarol vs Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.