Peñarol vs Progreso: match statistics

Peñarol sit top of the table and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 3 wins and conceding 4 goals; Progreso have lost 3 of their last 5 games and conceded 9 goals in that run. At home, the hosts average 1.94 goals and 5.94 shots on target per match, while the visitors score 0.81 goals and register 3.38 shots on target away from home. Peñarol’s advantage in the quality of chances created is reflected in their home xG of 1.80, compared with Progreso’s away xG of 1.14. The hosts concede an average of 1.06 goals at home, while Progreso fail to score in 44% of their away matches and lose 63% of them. These differences point to a Peñarol win, although their clean-sheet rate of 12% at home means the visitors cannot be ruled out from scoring.

In the last five matches for both teams, both sides scored in 80% of games, a stronger indicator for BTTS - Yes than their season rates of 47% and 44%. During this period, Peñarol and Progreso each scored 1.4 goals per match, while Progreso conceded an average of 1.8, giving the hosts a good opportunity to score. The visitors’ chances are supported by the fact that Peñarol conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match over the season and kept a clean sheet in only 13% of games. Caution is still warranted, however: the season scoring averages are just 0.93 goals for Peñarol and 0.81 for Progreso, so the edge for BTTS - Yes remains moderate.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this line was hit in 80% of Peñarol's matches and 87% of Progreso's. Both teams have scored relatively few goals this season, averaging 0.93 and 0.81 per match, respectively, despite posting average xG figures of 1.22 and 1.14. Each side has averaged 1.4 goals across its last five matches, but 80% of Progreso's recent games went Over 2.5 goals, weakening the case for a lower line. The forecast of 2.45 total goals accounts for this improved attacking output while remaining close to the league average of 2.38 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals offers a clearer edge than Under 2.5 goals.

The strongest indication that Peñarol will lead at the break comes from Progreso’s record: they were trailing at half-time in 56% of matches and led in only 13%. The home side led at the break in 27% of games and averaged 0.47 goals before half-time, compared with 0.25 for the visitors. Recent form supports the prospect of Peñarol holding on to any lead: they have lost none of their last five matches, winning three, while Progreso have lost three of five and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match. A half-time draw remains a serious alternative, as Peñarol went into the break level in four of their last five matches. However, Progreso’s poor starts and the home side’s clearly stronger results in recent weeks give slightly more weight to the 1/1 scenario.