Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM: match statistics
Persebaya Surabaya displays decidedly better home form with a 45% win rate at their own stadium and a solid goal difference (+6). The hosts score an average of 1.82 goals per home match, which, with a 16% conversion rate and an average of 4.82 shots on target, gives them an offensive advantage. PSM wins only 27% of away matches, conceding an average of 1.45 goals, and their negative goal difference (-3) plus poor form in the last five matches (0.8 PPG) indicate problems. Although PSM can maintain 49% possession, low shooting efficiency (11%) and just 9% away clean sheets weaken their chances. xG stats also favor the hosts (1.51 vs 1.34), confirming their qualitative advantage. Considering all factors, Persebaya Surabaya has a real chance of victory, though a draw remains in play due to relatively even possession and both teams' tendency to draw.
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Persebaya Surabaya played PSM in Liga 1 (Indonesia). The match was played on 25 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Persebaya Surabaya: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. PSM: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Persebaya Surabaya scores 1.50 and concedes 1.05 goals per match. PSM scores 1.09 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Persebaya Surabaya 64%, PSM 55%. Over 2.5: Persebaya Surabaya 45%, PSM 32%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
PSM has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.32. Persebaya Surabaya: 10.6 shots per match, PSM: 11.4.
Match halves
Persebaya Surabaya: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.91. PSM: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Persebaya Surabaya: 76-90+ (10 goals). PSM: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 1: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Persebaya Surabaya displays decidedly better home form with a 45% win rate at their own stadium and a solid goal difference (+6). The hosts score an average of 1.82 goals per home match, which, with a 16% conversion rate and an average of 4.82 shots on target, gives them an offensive advantage. PSM wins only 27% of away matches, conceding an average of 1.45 goals, and their negative goal difference (-3) plus poor form in the last five matches (0.8 PPG) indicate problems. Although PSM can maintain 49% possession, low shooting efficiency (11%) and just 9% away clean sheets weaken their chances. xG stats also favor the hosts (1.51 vs 1.34), confirming their qualitative advantage. Considering all factors, Persebaya Surabaya has a real chance of victory, though a draw remains in play due to relatively even possession and both teams' tendency to draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Persebaya Surabaya | PSM | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Persebaya Surabaya is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Persebaya Surabaya · 0.8 pts / match - PSM
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Persebaya Surabaya is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Persebaya Surabaya · 1.09 goals / match - PSM
Persebaya Surabaya is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.05 goals / match - Persebaya Surabaya · 1.18 goals / match - PSM
Persebaya Surabaya scores in 86% of matches (19 of 22 matches), while PSM keeps a clean sheet in 23% (5 of 22 matches).
PSM scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Persebaya Surabaya keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Persebaya Surabaya
Over / Under - PSM
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Persebaya Surabaya is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.41 pts / match - Persebaya Surabaya · 1.27 pts / match - PSM
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Persebaya Surabaya - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
PSM - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 23%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Persebaya Surabaya
PSM
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 1).
Teams vs league
| Persebaya Surabaya | Liga | PSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.55 | 2.64 | ▼ 2.27 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 54% | • 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 51% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | • 27% | 26% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 69% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | • 82% | 83% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Persebaya Surabaya 0 - 1 - 0 PSM. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM?
The Liga 1 match finished Persebaya Surabaya 1:0 PSM. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM?
Persebaya Surabaya score 1.50 goals per game on average and PSM 1.09. The Liga 1 average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Persebaya Surabaya's matches and 55% of PSM's.
What form are Persebaya Surabaya and PSM in?
Over the last 5 games Persebaya Surabaya have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and PSM 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.