Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan: match statistics

Ulsan sit 3rd, while Pohang Steelers are eighth, and the visitors have won 10 of their 21 league fixtures compared with the hosts’ 8 victories. Pohang come into this match on a very poor run, having lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 5 goals and conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match during that stretch. At home, the hosts score only 0.4 goals per game and fail to find the net in 60% of their appearances, contrasting with Ulsan’s 1.5 away goals per match and just 20% of away games without scoring. Ulsan also create slightly better chances, recording an away xG of 1.63 compared with Pohang’s 1.49 at home, while they also average 5 shots on target per match against their opponents’ 3.3. Pohang’s home defence is solid, conceding 0.8 goals per game, so a draw remains a realistic outcome; however, Ulsan’s edge in attacking efficiency and current form points towards an away win.

The season profile clearly favors goals from both sides: BTTS - Yes occurred in 73% of Pohang Steelers’ matches and 70% of Ulsan’s fixtures, compared with a league average of 52%. The hosts score an average of 1.64 goals but concede 1.64, while Ulsan scores 1.50 goals and concedes 1.20, meaning both sides have credible offensive arguments. The xG figures confirm this: 1.81 for Pohang and 1.63 for Ulsan, with xG against standing at 1.65 and 1.59, respectively. In their last five matches, Pohang’s scoring efficiency dropped to 1.0 goal and BTTS fell to 40%, which is the main risk to the pick, although they also conceded 1.6 goals per match. During the same period, Ulsan recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of their fixtures and averaged 1.8 goals scored, making the scenario in which both teams find the net more likely.

Ulsan have cleared the 1.5-goal mark in 100% of their league matches, while Pohang have done so in 73%, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Both teams regularly create chances: average xG stands at 1.81 for Pohang and 1.63 for Ulsan, while their opponents concede 1.59 and 1.65 xG respectively. Pohang concede an average of 1.64 goals per match, while Ulsan have scored 1.8 goals per game across their last five appearances, with 80% of those matches featuring at least three goals. The hosts have been less effective offensively of late, averaging 1.0 goal over five matches, but Ulsan have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their league fixtures. The Over 1.5 line therefore offers the strongest edge, as the data from both teams significantly reduces the likelihood of a 0:0 or 1:0 result.

A draw at half-time is the most realistic starting point: Pohang were level at the break in 36% of their matches, compared with 30% for Ulsan, with an average of just 1.55 and 1.30 goals scored before half-time, respectively. However, Ulsan have a clear advantage after the interval, averaging 0.90 goals scored and conceding just 0.50, while Pohang concede 0.82 goals during this period. Their form over the last five matches further favours the visitors: Ulsan have earned an average of 1.4 points per match and scored 1.8 goals, compared with 0.6 points and 1.0 goal for Pohang. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, while Ulsan have a season win rate of 50%, compared with Pohang’s 45%. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a Ulsan win best combines the cautious outlook for the first half with the visitors’ greater stability after the break.