Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom: match statistics

Polonia Warszawa have the stronger attacking profile at home, averaging 2.00 goals with an xG of 2.31, while Polonia Bytom score 1.33 goals away from home with an xG of 2.02. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 20.67 shots and 7.33 shots on target per match, compared with 17 and 6 for the visitors. Bytom’s defensive record could be decisive: away from home, they concede as many as 2.67 goals per game, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 67% of these matches. Polonia Warszawa also regularly allow opponents opportunities, conceding an average of 2.00 goals at home, so the visitors should have a chance to score. Although Bytom have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, their lack of an away win and the superior quality of the hosts’ chances created point towards a Polonia Warszawa victory.

The data strongly supports goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 75% of Polonia Warszawa’s matches and in all of Polonia Bytom’s games, compared with the league average of 54%. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals, while the visitors, despite averaging 1.33 goals, create plenty of chances, as confirmed by an xG of 2.02 and 6.0 shots on target per match. Bytom’s defense has not kept a single clean sheet and concedes an average of 2.67 goals, so Polonia Warszawa should have excellent opportunities to score. The hosts also concede an average of 1.75 goals, while in their last five matches both teams conceded 1.6 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively. Even based on current form, the BTTS rate stands at 60% for the hosts and 80% for the visitors, making a goal for each team the more likely scenario.

Polonia Warszawa average 2.00 goals scored, while Polonia Bytom concede as many as 2.67 goals per match, clearly favoring goals for the home side. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches, while also scoring in 100% of their games, giving both teams solid grounds to contribute to the scoreline. The attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures: 1.64 for the hosts and a high 2.02 for the visitors, with a combined average of 10.5 shots on target per match. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of matches, but the Over 1.5 line is safer and has the strongest support based on the consistency of goals scored and conceded.

The strongest signal points to Polonia Warszawa taking the lead by half-time: the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes in 2 of their 4 matches, or 50%, while Polonia Bytom were trailing at the break in all 3 of their games. The Warsaw side average 2.00 goals per home match, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.67 goals away from home and have kept no clean sheets. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the first halves, in which they score an average of 1.00 goal, compared with 0.67 for the Bytom side, while the visitors’ opponents average 1.67 goals before the break. Although Polonia Bytom create chances worth 2.02 xG and register an average of 6.0 shots on target, their defensive weakness and lack of an away win increase the likelihood that the hosts will maintain their lead. The 1/1 scenario is therefore the most likely, with a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time representing a significant alternative.