Port Vale vs Luton Town: match statistics
Luton Town appears to be the favorite in this meeting despite weaker away form. Port Vale occupies the last, 24th place in the table with only a 13% win rate at home and an alarming 53% rate of home losses. The hosts failed to score in 53% of home matches, which, with an average of just 0.93 goals per match, puts them in a very difficult situation. Luton Town, despite 63% losses away, has significantly better scoring efficiency (1.06 goals/match) and higher shot conversion (10% vs 7%). Additionally, the visitors have the advantage in possession (58% vs 48%) and better form in the last five matches (1.4 points/match vs 1.0). Given Port Vale's desperate situation and Luton Town's relatively better statistics, I expect a win for the visitors, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
Port Vale vs Luton Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Port Vale played Luton Town in EFL League One (England). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Port Vale: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Luton Town: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Port Vale scores 0.81 and concedes 1.39 goals per match. Luton Town scores 1.27 and concedes 1.21. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Port Vale 35%, Luton Town 42%. Over 2.5: Port Vale 42%, Luton Town 48%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Luton Town has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.30. Port Vale: 11.6 shots per match, Luton Town: 12.1.
Match halves
Port Vale: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.48. Luton Town: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Port Vale: 46-60 (6 goals). Luton Town: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Luton Town appears to be the favorite in this meeting despite weaker away form. Port Vale occupies the last, 24th place in the table with only a 13% win rate at home and an alarming 53% rate of home losses. The hosts failed to score in 53% of home matches, which, with an average of just 0.93 goals per match, puts them in a very difficult situation. Luton Town, despite 63% losses away, has significantly better scoring efficiency (1.06 goals/match) and higher shot conversion (10% vs 7%). Additionally, the visitors have the advantage in possession (58% vs 48%) and better form in the last five matches (1.4 points/match vs 1.0). Given Port Vale's desperate situation and Luton Town's relatively better statistics, I expect a win for the visitors, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Port Vale | Luton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Luton Town is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Port Vale · 1.4 pts / match - Luton Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Luton Town is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
0.81 goals / match - Port Vale · 1.27 goals / match - Luton Town
Luton Town is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.39 goals / match - Port Vale · 1.21 goals / match - Luton Town
Port Vale scores in 48% of matches (15 of 31 matches), while Luton Town keeps a clean sheet in 33% (11 of 33 matches).
Luton Town scores in 73% of matches (24 of 33 matches), while Port Vale keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Port Vale
Over / Under - Luton Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Luton Town is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Port Vale · 1.24 pts / match - Luton Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Port Vale - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Luton Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Port Vale
Luton Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Port Vale | Liga | Luton Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.19 | 2.61 | ▼ 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 52% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 51% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 27% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 52% | 70% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 81% | ▼ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Port Vale 0 - 1 - 0 Luton Town. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Port Vale vs Luton Town?
The EFL League One match finished Port Vale 1:1 Luton Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Port Vale vs Luton Town?
Port Vale score 0.81 goals per game on average and Luton Town 1.27. The EFL League One average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Port Vale's matches and 42% of Luton Town's.
What form are Port Vale and Luton Town in?
Over the last 5 games Port Vale have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Luton Town 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Port Vale vs Luton Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.