Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced rivalry between two teams fighting for league survival. Portimonense sits in 17th place and suffers from very weak home form with just an 8% win rate, conceding an average of 1.17 goals per match. Paços de Ferreira is ranked last in 18th place but has shown slightly better disposition in the last five matches (1.0 PPG compared to the hosts' 0.4 PPG). Both teams struggle with efficiency—Portimonense averages only 0.67 goals in home matches, while the visitors manage just 0.55 on the road. The high percentage of draws for the hosts (42% in home matches) and the visitors (27% away), combined with the low scoring output of both sides, suggests that splitting the points is the most probable scenario. Given the minimal advantage for the hosts due to playing at their own stadium and slightly better xG indicators (1.49 vs 1.15), a draw seems the most realistic result for this encounter.
Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Portimonense played Paços de Ferreira in LigaPro (Portugal). The match was played on 7 March 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Portimonense: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Paços de Ferreira: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Portimonense scores 1.04 and concedes 1.46 goals per match. Paços de Ferreira scores 0.87 and concedes 1.39. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Portimonense 58%, Paços de Ferreira 43%. Over 2.5: Portimonense 38%, Paços de Ferreira 52%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Portimonense has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.38. Portimonense: 12.3 shots per match, Paços de Ferreira: 12.4.
Match halves
Portimonense: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.54. Paços de Ferreira: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Portimonense: 0-15 (6 goals). Paços de Ferreira: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
LigaPro: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a balanced rivalry between two teams fighting for league survival. Portimonense sits in 17th place and suffers from very weak home form with just an 8% win rate, conceding an average of 1.17 goals per match. Paços de Ferreira is ranked last in 18th place but has shown slightly better disposition in the last five matches (1.0 PPG compared to the hosts' 0.4 PPG). Both teams struggle with efficiency—Portimonense averages only 0.67 goals in home matches, while the visitors manage just 0.55 on the road. The high percentage of draws for the hosts (42% in home matches) and the visitors (27% away), combined with the low scoring output of both sides, suggests that splitting the points is the most probable scenario. Given the minimal advantage for the hosts due to playing at their own stadium and slightly better xG indicators (1.49 vs 1.15), a draw seems the most realistic result for this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Portimonense | Paços de Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paços de Ferreira is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Portimonense · 1 pts / match - Paços de Ferreira
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Portimonense is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.04 goals / match - Portimonense · 0.87 goals / match - Paços de Ferreira
Paços de Ferreira is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.46 goals / match - Portimonense · 1.39 goals / match - Paços de Ferreira
Portimonense scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Paços de Ferreira keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
Paços de Ferreira scores in 48% of matches (11 of 23 matches), while Portimonense keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Portimonense
Over / Under - Paços de Ferreira
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Portimonense is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Portimonense · 0.96 pts / match - Paços de Ferreira
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Portimonense - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paços de Ferreira - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -12 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Portimonense
Paços de Ferreira
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (LigaPro).
Teams vs league
| Portimonense | Liga | Paços de Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.50 | 2.45 | ▼ 2.26 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 48% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 44% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 31% | • 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 65% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 96% | 77% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Paços de FerreiraSubstitutionOn: David José Soares Oliveira Furtado CostaOff: João Victor Lopes do Nascimento Silveira
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Portimonense 0 - 0 - 1 Paços de Ferreira. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira?
The LigaPro match finished Portimonense 2:3 Paços de Ferreira. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira?
Portimonense score 1.04 goals per game on average and Paços de Ferreira 0.87. The LigaPro average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Portimonense's matches and 43% of Paços de Ferreira's.
What form are Portimonense and Paços de Ferreira in?
Over the last 5 games Portimonense have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Paços de Ferreira 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira?
The statistical background for Portimonense vs Paços de Ferreira — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.