Porto II vs Farense: match statistics

Porto II sit 17th and lost their only league match so far 0-2, while Farense are eighth after a 2-1 victory. However, the hosts have a slightly better record in their last five matches: they have won 3 times and collected 9 points, compared with Farense’s 7 points from 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Both teams have conceded 5 goals in their last five matches, while their attacking output has been very similar, with Porto II scoring 4 goals and Farense 3. Farense have made the better start to the current season and hold a marginal advantage in the table, but the away nature of the fixture and Porto II’s more favorable recent form offset those factors. With such similar efficiency and an identical number of goals conceded, a closely contested draw is the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by the very low-scoring profile of the teams’ recent matches: Porto II have averaged 0.8 goals, while Farense have averaged 0.6 goals across their last five games. BTTS occurred in 0% of Porto II’s matches during this period and in only 20% of Farense’s, with both teams conceding an average of 1.0 goal per game. Farense do have an xG of 1.44 across their last five matches, but Porto II allow opponents 1.43 xG, giving the visitors a chance of scoring once rather than necessarily producing an open game. The hosts generate just 0.85 xG, while Farense’s defence allows an average of 1.03 xG, so their goal is far from certain as well. In addition, only 33% of league matches end with both teams scoring, while the average of 1.89 goals per match favours a scenario in which at least one side fails to score.

Both teams have scored few goals in their last five matches: Porto II have averaged 0.8, while Farense have averaged 0.6 goals per game. During the same period, the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal, as did the visitors, pointing to a scenario more likely to produce results such as 1:1 or 0:1 than an open, high-scoring game. Farense created higher-quality chances, with an xG of 1.44 compared with Porto II’s 0.85, but this did not translate into finishing efficiency, and only 20% of the teams’ combined matches ended with both sides scoring. Porto II have gone Over 2.5 goals in just 20% of their last five appearances, while the league average is only 1.89 goals per game. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore has a clear advantage, as it takes four goals to lose this bet despite both teams’ currently low scoring output.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Porto II victory after the final whistle, as Farense have been level at the break in 75% of their recent matches and have averaged no goals scored in the first half. Porto II also have a case for a cautious opening: across their last five matches, they scored just 0.4 goals before the break, while the average number of goals in their first halves was 0.8. After half-time, however, the hosts have been more reliable over the full five-match sample, winning 60% of their games compared with Farense’s 40% and averaging 1.8 points per match against the visitors’ 1.4. In addition, Porto II’s current-season home data includes a victory after a goalless first half, with both of their two goals scored after the break. The low league average of 1.89 goals per match, together with only 22% of first halves featuring at least two goals, further supports the prospect of an evenly balanced opening before the hosts turn the match in their favour.