Progreso vs Racing: match statistics

Racing sit 3rd, while Progreso are seventh, and over the course of the season the visitors have suffered just 4 defeats compared with 18 losses for the hosts. Racing’s away defence concedes an average of just 0.79 goals per match, compared with Progreso’s 1.64 goals at home, while also keeping clean sheets more frequently: 36% to 14%. The visitors create higher-quality chances, as reflected by an away xG of 1.61 compared with Progreso’s 1.22 at home, but they score just 0.93 goals per game themselves and fail to find the net in 43% of their away matches. Both teams have been in poor form recently: Progreso have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, while Racing have won just 1 of their last 5 and conceded 10 goals during that period. Racing’s high away draw rate of 43%, combined with both teams’ limited attacking efficiency, points to the most likely outcome being a share of the points.

Progreso’s seasonal BTTS rate is just 47%, while Racing’s stands at 43%, with both figures below the league average of 51%. Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 53% of matches, compared with 36% for Racing, which is particularly problematic for the visitors, who average just 0.93 goals per game. Racing has failed to score in 43% of its matches, whereas Progreso has failed to find the net in only 7%, making a home win without a reply more likely than a goalless game for both sides. The last five matches have produced an average of 1.0 goal scored per team, but Racing conceded 2.0 goals per game during this period, strengthening Progreso’s chances of scoring without guaranteeing a goal for the visitors. Although Racing’s recent xG is 1.59, Progreso’s solid defence, conceding an average of just 0.73 goals per game over the season, shifts the forecast towards BTTS - No.

Progreso concede an average of just 0.73 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of games, which significantly limits Racing’s attacking potential, with Racing averaging 0.93 goals scored. Racing are also defensively solid, conceding an average of 0.79 goals, while Progreso, despite averaging 1.47 goals, should not have the conditions for a high-scoring game. The season data for both teams strongly support a low-scoring outcome: fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored in 73% of Progreso’s matches and 71% of Racing’s, while fewer than 3.5 goals have been recorded in 80% and 86%, respectively. The last five matches were slightly more open, as each team had 60% of games with at least three goals, but both sides scored just 1.0 goal per match during this period. The projected total of 2.26 goals still provides a clear safety margin for the Under 3.5 goals option.

Progreso led at half-time in 53% of its matches, while Racing held the lead at the break in only 14%, clearly supporting a scenario in which the home side gains the upper hand from the outset. Progreso scores an average of 0.73 goals before half-time and concedes just 0.27, whereas Racing averages 0.43 goals scored and 0.50 conceded in this period. Across the season, Progreso has a 60% win rate, averages 2.13 points per match and has lost only 7% of its games, compared with Racing’s 36% win rate and 21% loss rate. The home advantage is reinforced by finishing efficiency: Progreso converts 11% of its shots, compared with 7% for Racing, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their matches. Recent form has been less consistent for both sides, but Racing has lost 3 of its last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.0 goals in those games. Therefore, Progreso to lead at half-time and win the match remains the strongest HT/FT outcome: 1/1.