PSV II vs Volendam: match statistics

PSV II sit 14th, while Volendam are 19th, giving the hosts a slight edge in the current league standings. In their last five matches, PSV II have won 2 games and scored 4 goals, whereas Volendam have recorded just 1 victory despite scoring 6 goals. The hosts’ defence has looked more solid, however: they have conceded 6 goals during this period, compared with 9 for the visitors. PSV II have averaged 1.2 points per game in their last five outings, while Volendam have averaged 0.8. As a result, home advantage and better defensive organisation tip the prediction in favour of the hosts. The difference in form is not significant, so a draw remains a realistic scenario, but a narrow PSV II victory is more likely.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is not PSV II’s poor finishing: in their last five matches, the team scored just 4 goals, averaging 0.8 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. Volendam found the net more frequently, averaging 1.2 goals across their last five matches, but also conceded 1.8 goals per game, which increases the hosts’ chances of ending their scoring drought. The chance-quality data is more encouraging, as PSV II produced an average of 1.65 xG and Volendam 1.55 xG, while allowing 1.61 and 1.32 xG respectively. Although Volendam recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, PSV II’s low goal tally and 20% BTTS record are stronger indicators of the risk that the hosts will fail to score again. Therefore, the slightly more likely scenario is that at least one team will finish the match without scoring, making BTTS - No the marginally stronger selection.

The available data from the last 5 matches points to a total of 2.0 goals per game for PSV II and 3.0 goals in Volendam’s matches. Volendam conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game during this period, which should allow PSV II to improve on their low tally of 0.8 goals scored. Both sides’ attacking potential is higher than the results alone suggest: PSV II generated 1.65 xG, while Volendam recorded 1.55, with 1.61 and 1.32 xG conceded defensively, respectively. The visitors had at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in each of those 5 games, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal.

Volendam have had a clearly stronger start to matches recently: they averaged 1.25 goals before half-time across their last five games, compared with just 0.20 for PSV II. The hosts failed to score before the break in 80% of those matches and were trailing at half-time in 40%, which supports a scenario in which the visitors lead at the break. After the interval, however, the picture reverses, as Volendam have not scored a single goal in their last five second halves, while PSV II averaged 0.60 goals during that period. The visitors also have the weaker full-time record, losing 60% of their recent matches and conceding an average of 1.80 goals per game. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a PSV II lead at half-time followed by a draw at full-time: X/2.