Qarabağ vs Neftçi: match statistics
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Qarabağ vs Neftçi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Qarabağ play Neftçi in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match date is 17 October 2026.
Current form
Qarabağ: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Neftçi: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Qarabağ scores 1.83 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Neftçi scores 2.57 and concedes 0.71. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Qarabağ 50%, Neftçi 43%. Over 2.5: Qarabağ 33%, Neftçi 71%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Qarabağ has higher xG: 2.32 vs 1.85. Qarabağ: 17.5 shots per match, Neftçi: 14.9.
Match halves
Qarabağ: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.33. Neftçi: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 1.14.
Goals by minute
Qarabağ: 61-75 (3 goals). Neftçi: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 67%.
Before the match
1X2 odds
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Qarabağ | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Qarabağ is 30% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Qarabağ · 2 pts / match - Neftçi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftçi is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
1.83 goals / match - Qarabağ · 2.57 goals / match - Neftçi
Qarabağ is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Qarabağ · 0.71 goals / match - Neftçi
Qarabağ scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
Neftçi scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Qarabağ
Over / Under - Neftçi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftçi is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Qarabağ · 2 pts / match - Neftçi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Qarabağ
Neftçi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Qarabağ | Liga | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.50 | 2.42 | ▲ 3.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 43% | • 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 43% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 34% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 63% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 78% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Qarabağ 2 - 0 - 1 Neftçi. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
When do Qarabağ and Neftçi play?
Qarabağ face Neftçi on 17 October 2026 in Premyer Liqası. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.
What is the head-to-head record between Qarabağ and Neftçi?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 2, Neftçi won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Qarabağ vs Neftçi?
Qarabağ score 1.83 goals per game on average and Neftçi 2.57. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Qarabağ's matches and 43% of Neftçi's.
What form are Qarabağ and Neftçi in?
Over the last 5 games Qarabağ have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Neftçi 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Qarabağ vs Neftçi?
The statistical background for Qarabağ vs Neftçi — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.