Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

Qingdao Youth Island remain unbeaten at home, winning 36% of their matches and drawing as many as 64%, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have lost 45% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.36 goals scored and just 0.82 conceded at home, whereas the visitors manage only 0.82 goals away from home and concede 1.27. Qingdao’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.26 compared with Chongqing’s 0.82, while Chongqing allow opponents an xG of 1.60. Current form also favours the hosts, who have collected 8 points from their last five matches, compared with just 4 for the visitors, who have suffered three defeats. A draw remains a realistic scenario given Qingdao’s high draw rate, but their stronger defence and Chongqing’s significantly weaker away attacking efficiency point to a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Chongqing Tongliang Long’s limited attacking efficiency: the visitors average only 0.82 goals per game this season and failed to score in 36% of their matches. Qingdao Youth Island kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games and conceded just 0.6 goals per match across their last five fixtures, making it significantly harder for the visitors to find the net. The hosts’ recent scoring form also reduces the potential for goals from both sides, as they scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, with BTTS occurring in just 20% of those games. The hosts should have a greater chance of scoring against a visiting defence allowing an average xG of 1.60, but a scenario in which only one team scores is more likely than goals at both ends.

The profile of both teams points to a tight match with limited chances: the hosts average 10.82 shots, while the visitors manage just 7.09, including only 2.82 shots on target for Chongqing per game. In their last five matches, Qingdao scored 4 and conceded 3 goals, while Chongqing scored 5, confirming a moderate scoring pace. Neither team has gone Over 2.5 goals in more than 36% of their matches this season, and this line was not covered in any of the hosts’ last five games. The visitors have an average attacking xG of just 0.82, while the hosts keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, limiting the prospect of a high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.18 goals gives a clear betting edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Qingdao Youth Island victory in the match, as the hosts have been level at the break in 64% of their games, compared with 45% for Chongqing. Both teams average just 0.45 goals before half-time, while the hosts have conceded only 0.2 goals per match in this period over their last five games. After the break, Qingdao average 1.00 goal, whereas Chongqing score just 0.36 and concede as many as 0.91 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also evident across the season: they create an average of 1.21 xG compared with their opponents’ 0.82, while Chongqing’s defence allows 1.60 xG. Current form further supports Qingdao, who have taken 1.6 points per match over their last five games, compared with Chongqing’s 0.8, with the visitors losing 60% of those fixtures.