Queen of the South vs Airdrieonians: match statistics

Both teams have made very poor starts to the season in their respective match settings: Queen of the South have lost both of their home matches, while Airdrieonians have recorded a draw and a defeat away from home. The hosts are yet to score in front of their own supporters, managing just 1.5 shots on target on average, while the visitors have also failed to score away despite registering 2 shots on target per match. The quality of chances created is low on both sides, although Queen of the South hold a slight xG advantage, at 1.02 compared with Airdrieonians’ 0.86. The visitors are more effective at limiting opponents away from home, allowing an xG of 1.33 compared with the hosts’ 1.57 at home, and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away matches. The last five matches provide a slight argument in favour of Queen of the South, who have scored 6 goals compared with their opponents’ 5, but given both teams’ struggles in front of goal, a draw is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal is BTTS - No, as Airdrieonians have yet to score away from home and failed to find the net in 100% of such matches. Queen of the South are also unimpressive in attack at home, averaging just 0.67 goals, with an xG of 0.91 and 2.33 shots on target per match. Although the hosts’ season BTTS rate stands at 67%, the visitors’ figure is 0%, while the league average for both teams to score is only 28%. The last five matches suggest some attacking improvement, with xG of 1.58 for the hosts and 1.37 for the visitors, but Queen of the South conceded an average of 1.0 goal during that period, limiting Airdrieonians’ chances of breaking through. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team fails to score.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: the overall league average is 2.33, very close to the projected 2.30 goals. Queen of the South have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five matches, while Airdrieonians have scored 1.0 goal but allowed opponents to score 2.2. Recent xG figures are higher, standing at 1.58 for the hosts and 1.37 for the visitors, but Airdrieonians have yet to score in the current competition, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of the hosts’ last five matches and 80% of the visitors’ matches, although neither team has recorded a game with more than 4 goals so far. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as despite the visitors’ defensive weaknesses, their scoring data and results to date limit the risk of four goals being scored.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Queen of the South victory at the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT X/1 outcome. Neither team averaged a goal before the break, while the hosts were drawing at half-time in 67% of their matches, compared with 50% for Airdrieonians; additionally, only 54% of league matches feature a first-half goal. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, as Airdrieonians conceded an average of 1.5 goals in second halves and failed to score in any of them, whereas Queen of the South averaged 0.67 goals. Overall match form also favours the hosts: across their last five matches, they scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.0 per game, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match. The low xG figures for both sides—0.91 for the hosts and 0.86 for the visitors—reinforce expectations of a cautious opening, but Airdrieonians' weak defence gives the hosts a greater chance of securing the turnaround after half-time.